context: Territorial disputes and civil confrontation persists between the PRC and Taiwan. With the inauguration of Lai Ching-te 赖清德 as RoC (Taiwan) president, whether Taiwan is willing to observe the status quo becomes ambiguous. The PRC responded strongly to Lai’s ‘two-country’ theory, condemning his pro-independence stance. The following is a renowned PRC academic’s interpretation of the issue.
Lai Ching-te 赖清德 further derails from the 1992 Consensus, asserts Zheng Yongnian 郑永年 Chinese University of Hong Kong (Shenzhen) Advanced Institute of Global and Contemporary China Studies director, raising the risk of separatist claims.
Zheng contends that four factors are accelerating Taiwan's path towards independence
- advocation by political power on the island
- misjudgments of the DPP (Democratic Progressive Party)
- Taiwan can survive without respecting the 1992 Consensus
- the US and Japan can deter the mainland’s will to reunify the PRC
- the mainland lacks the capability to resolve the Taiwan issue
- the US’ extreme anti-China position
- the US attempts to reshape the balance of power in the region to prevent reunification
- launches cognitive warfare in the field of
- geopolitics: if Taiwan is lost, the US and its allies will no longer have access to the first island chain
- economy: if the mainland obtains Taiwan’s technology in producing semi-conductor, the PRC will dominate global manufacturing in the field
- ideology: shapes Taiwan as a democratic holy land
- the US’ strategy
- provided misguided hope to separatists
- shaped public opinion in preparation for military conflict
- framed the PRC, Russia, the DPRK and Iran as an ‘axis of evil’
- populism within the PRC
The PRC should retain strategic robustness, making rational judgements to promote peaceful reunification. Several conditions are beneficial for the PRC
- Taiwan is politically polarised
- the younger generation views democracy as an empty slogan
- development of the island cannot satisfy their aspirations
- most Taiwan people
- do not want war
- do not believe the US would come to their assistance
- the US is attempting to avoid direct military interference
- the Biden government upholds a guardrail policy
- the US’ influence on the international stage is detracting
- withdrew from the TPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership)
- Biden’s IPEF (Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity) fails to provide strategic interests to its allies
The PRC should not abandon peaceful means to foster reunification
- the PRC should
- regard Taiwan people as compatriots
- respect that while most Taiwan people do not seek immediate reunification, they yearn for peace and to maintain the status quo
- continue advance modernisation to provide a material foundation for negotiations
- further civil exchanges under the one-China principle
- devise new forms of communication to negotiate with the Taiwan authorities
- foster openness on trade and tourism
- centre on reshaping the Taiwan youth’s opinion