A consensus unites PRC pundits on the country’s trade surplus: it stems from manufacturing upgrades and deeper integration into global supply chains, is broadly legitimate, and should be fine-tuned rather than suppressed by force. Where they diverge is on how.
Beijing began pairing richer eastern provinces with poorer western ones 30 years ago. The official goal now is a shift from moving funds west to building industries able to stand alone: demand-led, locally staffed, and judged by markets rather than by how fast funds were dispensed to set them up.
Once a description of uneven post-pandemic recovery, the notion of a K-shaped economy has become an organising frame for PRC macro debate, increasingly common in commentary on the economy’s direction. The argument now turns on what is driving the divergence, and therefore what policy should do about it.
Weakening demand for NEVs, continued production growth and a prolonged price war have put sustained pressure on industry margins. Beijing's concern about this predates the anti-involution campaign. Premier Li Qiang 李强 warned about the risks of 'involution' in June 2024. The Politburo followed the next month, summoning automaker executives over below-cost pricing. Even so, the competition continued.