Once a description of uneven post-pandemic recovery, the notion of a K-shaped economy has become an organising frame for PRC macro debate, increasingly common in commentary on the economy’s direction. The argument now turns on what is driving the divergence, and therefore what policy should do about it.
The 2026 Lujiazui Forum placed capital market reform within a broader shift in how firms are financed. Corporate bond net financing reached just over C¥2 tn in H1 2026, up almost 80 percent from a year earlier, while new lending to firms slipped by almost 4 percent to just over C¥11 tn.
Weakening demand for NEVs, continued production growth and a prolonged price war have put sustained pressure on industry margins. Beijing's concern about this predates the anti-involution campaign. Premier Li Qiang 李强 warned about the risks of 'involution' in June 2024. The Politburo followed the next month, summoning automaker executives over below-cost pricing. Even so, the competition continued.
Beijing is recasting farm resilience as a capacity task. Grain output still sets the floor. The harder test is whether farmland, water, labour, local services, storage, logistics and markets can hold up when shocks hit.