PRC strategy towards Taiwan and US provocations

Jin Canrong 金灿荣 School of International Studies Renmin University deputy dean, shares his insights about the recent military dills and the near future of Beijng–Washington–Taipei relations.

• military drills
  • the recent joint military exercise used a ‘cold start’ approach, starting right after being announced and with almost no prep time
  • it was highly targeted, with six areas surrounding Taiwan
    • this time, some zones were even closer to Taiwan
  • it included air and sea patrols, port control and joint operations, which showed stronger actual combat abilities
  • it was a direct response from the mainland to Taiwan's recent provocations, like promoting the ‘two-country theory’
  • Taiwan's defence officials have compared Beijing's actions to a ‘python strategy’—slowly tightening its grip
    • Jin agrees, saying that over time, the situation will probably get worse for Taiwan
• the US and Taiwan
  • the US will insist on its ‘One China’ policy while undermining it in practice
  • Washington keeps playing the ‘Taiwan card,’ pushing the situation into more dangerous territory
  • Jin thinks Taiwan and international forces have underestimated the PRC’s determination, which is why tensions are escalating
  • Jin doesn't believe the upcoming US election will change US policy toward the PRC; the stance will be the same before and after the election
  • Jin doesn’t think Taiwan's actions for independence are directly tied to the US election but are more about continuing what they've been doing
• peaceful reunification vs. military option
  • Jin supports prioritising peaceful reunification but keeping the military option open as a backup
  • besides military drills, other measures include economic sanctions, diplomatic pressure and legal actions against Taiwan independence leaders
    • however, he's pessimistic about peaceful reunification because of US and Taiwanese authorities deliberately causing trouble
  • the situation is like a ‘three-party game,’ and two of the parties (Taiwan and international forces) are actively stirring things up
  • if Taiwan's independence push continues and peaceful reunification isn’t possible, Beijing might take decisive military action
    • the PLA (People's Liberation Army) is ready for such action, but it will depend on political needs