In anticipation of an ‘America made great again’, fear of disruption is brewing globally. At home, Xi is facing domestic social and economic woes—and unfathomable military conspiracies. A charm offensive in Latin America was in order. The Party leader attended the 31st APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting and the 19th G20 Summit and made state visits to Peru and Brazil, where bilateral and regional LatAm relations are on the ascendant.
On the APEC sidelines, he held a farewell meeting with US President Joe Biden, addressing critical issues such as economic cooperation, Taiwan, and fentanyl production. They agreed that humans and not AI should decide on nuclear weapon use. This is a crucial move to prevent an AI-driven conflict, considering AI and tech will become central to the PRC–US competition under Trump 2.0, to which both Beijing and the incoming administration are now preparing.
debt, real estate recovery
The NPC (National People's Congress) Standing Committee meeting on 4-8 November failed to deliver a major new stimulus. Lan Foan 蓝佛安 Minister of Finance signalled Beijing’s nuanced approach to debt management, balancing debt reduction with economic growth. Debt relief aims to reduce local government hidden debt by C¥12 tn over the next five years. The impact is visible: special bonds are stepping up, with a record-breaking issuance in the last week of November of C¥940 billion.
The property market promises recovery, with new and established home transactions rising m-o-m and y-o-y, responding to October’s policy shift. While established home prices are falling, they are more stable, reports NBS, easing their decline by 0.5 percentage points over September.
Responding to a 2024 Third Plenum call, the state made investment in PRC-listed companies easier.
bracing for trade headwinds
October saw export growth of 12.7 percent y-o-y, its fastest in 27 months, despite a 2.3 percent decline in imports, signalling weak domestic demand. Behind the uptick are buyers frontloading PRC goods ahead of further tariff hikes—a trend likely to continue as trade friction with the US escalates.
A new MofCOM text called for more support for foreign trade, not least in credit insurance, financing and cross-border trade settlement. It laid out support for several emerging trade modes, such as e-commerce and green trade.
With conflicting media reports on their progress, PRC-EU negotiations on EV duties did not stop in November. Beijing tabled a new provision allowing EU brandy importers to use 'guarantee letters' for ‘anti-dumping measures’ requirements. Jian Junbo 简军波 Fudan PRC-EU relations pundit, urges moving beyond specific trade disputes to covering broader PRC-EU competition rules.
resilience in energy transition
The NPC Standing Committee passed a groundbreaking Energy Law on 8 November. Chen Xinghua 陈兴华 Energy Law Research Association heralded it as a major shift in Beijing’s legislative approach. New in PRC law, it provides an essential framework for a sector’s orderly operation, as is typical in modern states.
Energy supply resilience notes Wang Peng 王鹏 North China Electric Power University is the law’s core objective. Robust reserves and emergency backup strategies are to bolster energy security.
Building on this, guidance for energy transformation emerged from the National Development and Reform Commission and five other agencies on 30 October. Zhang Xing 张星 National Energy Administration, outlined its key priorities.
These are
- boosting renewable energy capacity
- deepening sector-specific renewable
- integrating, and expanding innovation pilots
The PRC already surpassed its 2025 target of 50 percent non-fossil fuel power sources in 2023. But infrastructure and grid integration are lacking. These ae now a priority ahead of more capacity.
closer agri ties with Brazil
China is set to harvest over 700 million tonnes of grain and oilseeds in 2024, a historic output and a ninth consecutive year above 650 million tonnes. Grain growers, already hit by low prices, now face more pressure from an influx of new crops. To counter falling returns, regulators reset minimum purchase prices for rice in major producer provinces.
The 7th China International Import Expo (CIIE) emerged as a key agrifood import platform. COFCO Group bought up big, bagging high-quality products worth some US$10 bn. The group stepped up imports from BRI member states, including Kazakhstan, Bulgaria, and Argentina.
During President Xi’s state visit to Brazil, China approved imports of sorghum, challenging US market dominance. Agreements opened PRC markets to Brazilian table grapes, sesame, and fish products for animal feed.
digital initiatives and innovation push
In his APEC address, Xi unveiled a ‘Global cross-border data flow cooperation initiative’. Issued unilaterally in this forum, the offer is notable, given Beijing had previously resisted cross-border data collaboration efforts within APEC.
The State Council recognised the pivotal role of platform firms in Beijing’s tech ambitions, adding to the gradual easing of previous controls.
Updated regulations for the NSFC (National Natural Science Foundation of China) encourage deeper public-private collaboration. Incentives for private firms to co-invest and take part in NSFC research projects may be in the pipeline.
global environment challenge
Beijing’s stance on global climate talks remains complex. Although it rejected specific financial commitments at COP29, Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang 丁薛祥 underscored the PRC’s substantial ongoing commitment. He highlighted investments of over C¥177 bn since 2016 to support other countries' climate change mitigation actions.
Work on carbon footprint standards is stepping up with a new national standard for electrolytic aluminium. At some 70 percent of nonferrous metals sector emissions, it accounts for some 5 percent of total PRC carbon output. Aluminium smelting is forecast for formal merger into a national carbon market by 2025, reflecting a targeted move on industrial emissions.
upgrading supervision, grounding social stability
Strengthening Party units in emerging gig economy, etc., groups was urged by Xi at a Central Social Work Meeting, upgrading stability maintenance (i.e. social control). Echoing Xi, Chen Wenqing 陈文清 Central Political and Legal Affairs Commission secretary, stressed the need to use comprehensive social order governance centres to resolve local disputes. Following recent random homicidal attacks, Wang Xiaohong 王小洪 Public Security Minister ,urgently called for pre-emptive risk management.
A second reading of the Supervision Law Amendment was completed. New measures were foreshadowed, notably variants of bail and protective custody. While bringing ‘Supervision’ (most often conviction of officials for corruption) closer to the criminal legal procedure, lawyers are still denied access to clients during proceedings. Detentions (former extra-legal shuāngguī) have been extended from six to up to 16 months.
consortia for healthcare and education
Close-knit county-level medical consortia will be monitored under an NHC (National Health Commission) index. The NHC also urged improving geriatric services and recognising long-term care workers’ vocational skills. To promote the use of AI and low-altitude economy, the NHC released guidelines for AI application scenarios in the health industry. Medical helicopters is one of the newly priced items.
A plan to build education consortia connecting families, schools, neighbourhoods, and industries was introduced by MoE, which aimed for holistic education coupled with practical sectors. Huai Jinping 怀进鹏 MoE minister called for international cooperation in vocational education; 32 countries signed the ‘Tianjin consensus’ in agreement.