context: Since taking office, the Ishiba Shigeru administration's PRC stance has improved and stabilised relations. Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya’s December 25 Beijing visit was a case in point.
This change of tone is explained by Yu Hailong 于海龙 Institute of International and Strategic Studies, Central Party School in terms of
- countering US unilateralism
- given Trump's re-election, Tokyo expects renewed ‘America First’ policies, hedgeing against unilateral actions via warmer ties with Beijing
- regional instability, e.g. political turmoil in South Korea demands more 'balanced' foreign relations
- domestic political constraints
- the LDP (Liberal Democratic Party) lost ground to opposition parties in the October 2024 general election
- Ishiba Shigeru石破茂, lacking support within the LDP, needs to score diplomatic points with the PRC to stay on top
- economic and strategic incentives
- conventional conservative tactics, not least ‘China threat’ narratives, have yielded little diplomatically or economically
- Tokyo seeks economic boost via bilateral exchanges, raising living standards in advance of 2025 Senate elections
- Beijing
- has sought constructive, stable relations with Japan
- remains cautious, favouring action over words
- expects Japan to honour previous Sino–Japanese agreements
Long-standing disputes over territory, Taiwan and history continue to challenge friendly ties. Japan is urged to shift away from a ‘unite with the US to contain PRC’ strategy.