context: NATO's 36th Summit was held in Ankara, Türkiye, on 7–8 Jul 2026. Some experts observe that the gathering, expectations for which were modest amid transatlantic tensions over Greenland, Iran and other issues, showcased the alliance in transition—to NATO 3.0, a vision that calls for European allies to assume primary responsibility for their own conventional defence while the US redirects resources to other priorities.
Sun Chenghao 孙成昊 Tsinghua University Centre for International Security and Strategy fellow, published an essay sharing his observations on the 2026 NATO Summit in Ankara. He stated that
- this summit
- may not have been the most dramatic NATO summit in recent years
- may be the one that most clearly illustrates how the alliance itself is changing
- confronted a practical question
- how NATO should operate in an era when the US is pressing Europe to shoulder greater responsibility even as the continent's security environment continues to deteriorate?
- demonstrates that NATO is evolving from a traditional alliance founded on shared values and underwritten by American security guarantees into NATO 3.0, an alliance increasingly defined by capabilities, responsibilities and transactions
- this transformation
- may not make NATO more united
- could make it more militarily effective
- is not likely to eliminate transatlantic differences
- will reshape the way interdependence between the US and Europe is managed
- this transformation
- features of NATO 3.0 are the following
- a transition from an alliance centred on political commitments to one focused on capabilities
- much of the Ankara Summit declaration is devoted to
- investment and capacity
- deep precision strikes
- integrated air and missile defence
- unmanned systems
- intelligence capabilities
- AI
- the standard by which NATO evaluates member contributions will no longer be based on whether allies support a particular political declaration but increasingly on whether they can provide
- financial resources
- defence industrial capacity
- military platforms
- sustained operational capabilities
- the new benchmarks for measuring an ally’s value are
- defense spending
- ammunition stockpiles
- strategic airlift
- aerial refueling
- long-range strike capabilities
- supply chain resilience
- much of the Ankara Summit declaration is devoted to
- Europe assuming greater responsibility without diminishing America's leadership position
- what the US seeks is a transfer of responsibilities—not a transfer of leadership
- a transition from an alliance centred on political commitments to one focused on capabilities
- NATO is
- unlikely either to collapse rapidly or return to its previous form
- more likely to evolve into one that is stronger militarily but more complex politically
- yet the stronger NATO becomes militarily, the more pronounced its internal disagreements over costs, industrial policy, burden-sharing and strategic autonomy are likely to become
- the institutional framework of collective defence will remain intact, but security commitments will become increasingly conditional
- member states will be expected to contribute continuously, while negotiations over rights, responsibilities and interests within the alliance become more frequent
- the key challenge is not to predict when NATO might decline but to understand how its operating logic is changing and to prepare for a European security landscape that is becoming both more militarised and more internally differentiated