uneven recovery marks China’s PV industry 'anti-involution' progress

context: The PRC's strategic emerging industries grapple with 'involution'—a phenomenon of intense, low-quality competition characterised by rapid capacity expansion and destructive price wars that erode sector-wide profitability. In the PV sector aggressive undercutting forced prices across the supply chain to plummet below cost. Beijing prioritises 'anti-involution' as a top economic mandate, explicitly directing industries to pivot from zero-sum market grabbing to coordinated, high-quality development. This policy shift was reinforced by the recent Central Economic Work Conference, which called for strengthening industry self-discipline and preventing 'involution-style' vicious competition, positioning the PV sector's current governance efforts as a critical test case for the nation's broader industrial restructuring.

The 2025 PV Industry Annual Conference was held on 18 December 2025, where industry leaders highlighted that while 'anti-involution' measures have effectively stabilised the upstream sector, the recovery remains uneven across the supply chain.

  • upstream (polysilicon) governance success
    • prices up 38.9 percent YTD (January–November)
    • output cut by 29.6 percent (January–October) via self-discipline
    • consolidation platform formally launched to manage capacity
  • downstream lag and supply-demand mismatch
    • wafer output down 6.7 percent; cell/module output rose ~10–13 percent
    • minimal price recovery (0.4–2.3 percent) for downstream links
    • module sector remains under pressure due to weak Q3 demand
  • financial trend
    • sector-wide losses narrowing
    • Q3 deficit reduced by 46.7 percent QoQ
    • industry signaling a market bottom
  • regulatory focus
    • government commitment to enforcing ‘demand-based production,’ eliminating ultra-low bidding
    • accelerating market exit for outdated capacit

Gao Jifan 高纪凡 Trina Solar chair's call to action

  • governance must extend beyond silicon to wafers, cells, modules and auxiliaries
  • urgent need to replace price wars with vertical synergy to achieve industry-wide profitability