context: Donald Trump was reelected as US President on 6 November 2024, and the Republican Party is set to take the two houses of the Congress as well. This would count as the ‘biggest shock to the bilateral relationship’ according to Fu Suixin 付随鑫 Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Institute of American Studies. Other PRC experts are more positive and see Trump 2.0 short-term and incapable of suppressing the PRC.
With Trump's return to the US Presidency, new opportunities may open to stabilise and improve Sino-US relations, despite underlying challenges, argues Wang Huiyao 王辉耀 Centre for China and Globalisation (CCG) chair. His perspective is shaped by Trump’s pragmatic, transactional approach to politics. Wang envisions
- potential for new trade and investment talks
- focus on economic results and 'America First' policies could lead Trump to pursue new trade negotiations with PRC
- inclination toward practical, deal-making approaches may mean Trump is open to discussing concrete trade and economic issues
- Trump’s transactional style prioritises outcomes over ideological consistency, which could allow both countries to revisit trade agreements and potentially reach new accords, particularly around tariffs, intellectual property, and investment terms.
- encouragement for PRC investment in the US
- emphasis on job creation and boosting US manufacturing could lead Trump to support PRC firms building factories in the US if it aligns with his economic agenda
- These would help ease trade tensions and open up new areas of cooperation, not least in sectors where bilateral interests converge, e.g. auto manufacturing and technology
- Trump’s self-identification as a 'Peace President' offers a role for the PRC
- His interest in brokering peace in the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Palestine conflicts call for Beijing's support
- given Xi's strategic partnerships with Russia and Middle East powers, Trump may seek PRCcollaboration
- Taiwan tensions
- Trump’s track record points to a practical stance, averting escalation in the Taiwan Strait
- His pragmatism (versus ideology) on US interests may allow room for dialogue and easing Taiwan tensions
- reaffirming the three Sino-US joint communiqués, may make for stability
- a new phase for Sino-US relations via pragmatism
- Trump 2.0 is may free Sino-US relations of ideology
- transactional diplomacy may set a stable and predictable framework for cooperation, even amid ongoing competition