Context: The US claimed successful attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities on 21 June, with all aircraft safely returning. Netanyahu had threatened the strike for 14 years since 2012. It, occurred with Trump's coordination due to Israel's inability to act alone: its 'US dependence'. This Guanchazhe ('Observer') op-ed is by independent analyst Chen Feng 晨枫. Guanchazhe's take on the situation is once again unusually even-handed.
nuclear threat debate Iran has enriched uranium to 60 percent concentration and accumulated 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium, unprecedented for a non-nuclear state.
- US intelligence claims Iran could produce weapon-grade uranium within a week in a 'sprint' towards 'nukes'
- Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard stated recently Iran has not developed nuclear weapons
- International Atomic Energy Organisation's Grossi sees no evidence of systematic development of 'nukes'
military limitations the strikes face serious technical challenges
- Iran's nuclear facilities are reportedly buried over 90 metres underground
- the US's most powerful bunker-buster bomb (GBU-57) can only penetrate 60 metres
- even with consecutive strikes, completely destroying underground facilities remains uncertain, and Iran claims to have transferred nuclear materials beforehand
strategic consequences Iran responded with sustained cruise missile attacks on Israeli targets, including hitting Haifa port facilities.
- this creates a war of attrition Israel struggles to sustain
- its 'Arrow' missile inventory has reportedly 'bottomed out', whilst Iran's self-produced cruise missiles are relatively inexpensive.
- the conflict pressures Jordan and Iraq, whose airspace both Iranian missiles and Israeli aircraft must use
political ramifications For Trump, the action contradicts his 'America First' isolationist platform and MAGA base opposition to Middle Eastern intervention
- it occurs as he faces domestic challenges (inflation, tariff wars, and $6.5 trillion in debt due by month's end...)
- for Netanyahu, whilst seeking to secure his political legacy via 'lasting peace', the unprovoked attacks may invite future retaliation
long-term outlook both leaders are, argues Chen, 'stuck with each other' in a lose-lose situation.
- limited airstrikes cannot eliminate Iran's nuclear capabilities or trigger regime change
- ground invasion remains politically impossible
- Iran's 'last wire' strategy creates prolonged conflict
- neither the US nor Israel can settle it via military means alone