context: The PRC's first biennial transparency report was published on the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change website on 3 January 2025, outlining the PRC's progress on reducing greenhouse gas emissions and implementing NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions) by 2030. While on track to meet some of its targets early, such as solar and wind capacity, it has fallen behind on others. The next NDCs, which go to 2035, will be announced in February 2025. Experts believe the next emissions reduction targets should be more ambitious to align with the Paris Agreement's 1.5-degree limit and domestic dual carbon targets.
The report details actions and progress the PRC has made to achieve the goals of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Paris Agreement, over six sections
- national greenhouse gas inventory
- progress on NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions)
- impacts of and adaptation to climate change
- needs and support received
- basic information on climate change actions in Hong Kong and Macau
MEE (Ministry of Ecology and Environment) notes that the inventory was compiled based on the 2006 intergovernmental panel on climate change guidelines for national GHG (greenhouse gas) inventories, and that it had reported the PRC's 2020–21 inventory for the first time, including
- energy activities
- industrial production processes and product use
- agricultural activities
- LULUCF (land use, land change and forestry)
- waste treatment
According to the inventory
- the PRC's total GHG emissions in 2021 were about 12.9 bn tonnes of CO2 equivalent, an increase of 4.3 percent y-o-y
- CO2 accounted for around 80 percent and methane accounted for approximately 13 percent
- excluding LULUCF, total emissions were about 14.314 bn tonnes of CO2 equivalent, an increase of 4 percent y-o-y
- the increase was mainly due to a rise in GHG emissions from energy activities, industrial production processes and product use
- LULUCF absorbed around 1.315 bn tonnes of CO2 equivalent
Regarding the PRC's progress on achieving its 2030 NDCs, the report states
- by 2021, the PRC's CO2 emissions per unit of GDP had decreased by 50.9 percent compared to 2005 levels
- national forest stock increased 6.493 bn cubic metres compared to 2005
- by 2023, share of non-fossil fuels in total energy consumption reached 17.9 percent
- as of October 2024, total installed capacity of wind and solar reached around 1.28 bn kilowatts
Implementation of these targets is in line with expectations, with targets for forest stock and installed capacity of solar and wind already exceeding expectations.
The report outlines the country's financial needs for adressing climate change
- total funding needs for 2024–30 are around C¥25.2 tn, or C¥3.6 tn per year
- to achieve carbon neutrality, the PRC will require over C¥268 tn in funding
The PRC received a total of US$2.62 bn in financial support through multilateral funding mechanisms between 2020–22.
The report states that per capita energy consumption and per capita household electricity consumption are still 25 percent lower than the average level of OECD countries. Therefore energy demand will continue to grow rigidly, and carbon emissions will increase for some time.
The PRC faces several challenges in tech transfer and support. Most notably through policies by developed countries that hinder climate-friendly tech transfer, such as supply chain security, export controls and foreign investment security reviews. Most advanced tech is currently held by the private sector in industrialised countries and barriers to tech flow among multinationals are increasing.