THAAD will remain a problem for restoring China-South Korea ties as the two sides' interests cannot be aligned, argues Zhang Jingwei 张敬伟 Renmin University Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies fellow and Charhar Institute fellow.
He says it is up to South Korea to restore ties, and that positive signals alone are not enough. Some of Zhang's language hints at a modus vivendi however.
Incoming South Korea President Moon Jae-yin sees restoring ties with China as urgent, says Zhang, which China recognises. Moon's choice of a high-ranking personal envoy (former Prime Minister Lee) to Beijing, and to send a delegation to the Belt and Road Forum were appreciated by Beijing. But the THAAD issue, warns Zhang, remains a fly in the ointment. Moon's position on THAAD, he concedes, differs from Park's, but does not firmly place him within the anti-THAAD camp.
South Korea's space for manoeuvre on THAAD is constrained by several factors
- Moon wants to remain close to Washington (declared his first foreign visit)
- the US insists on THAAD
- Moon could possibly dispute who pays the US$1 bn bill to shelve THAAD
- North Korean missile tests will move South Korean public opinion in favour of THAAD
Moon should not be expected to halt THAAD, argues Zhang. But nor can China yield, as the previously applied diplomatic pressure would then lose its purpose. While conceding no ground, concludes Zhang, China should accommodate Moon's show of goodwill.
South Korea, notes Zhang, has failed to released the technological parameters of THAAD, not least the scope of its radar. As long as this is unknown, he advises that, China will oppose THAAD; although this statement does perhaps signal a modus vivendi.