context: As policymakers look to diversify grain import sources away from reliance on the US and toward Belt and Road countries, the role of land ports and infrastructure in western and northern regions has become increasingly prominent. Russia, India and Kazakhstan are all on track for major market access gains in grain and oilseed categories this year. Ye's forecast that meat consumption will reach 123 million tonnes annually stands in stark contrast to current levels, estimated at roughly 70–80 million tonnes.
Despite substantial progress in safeguarding food security, Ye Xingqing 叶兴庆 State Council Development Research Centre (DRC) Rural Economic Research Centre director argued more diversity is needed in grain import sources as domestic grain consumption has not yet peaked, reports China Securities. On the basis of population and economic development scenarios as well as diet structure, Ye believes future annual meat and grain consumption will reach 123 million tonnes and 750 million tonnes, respectively.
Diversifying import sources by strengthening cooperation with Belt and Road countries will have a significant impact on the grain and oilseed sector, argues Ye. It will impact the varieties imported, structure of the market and key trade relationships in the sector, he notes. Furthermore, it will increase the importance of western ports and logistics networks and shift agricultural commodities import business to new geographic locations. This may reshape domestic grain markets, price and distribution patterns, and employment centres in agriculture.