context: Involved in oil and gas, refining and petrochemicals and one of world's five largest companies, Sinopec projected last year that the PRC's oil consumption will peak in 2027. The company has recently taken leadership in the development of the hydrogen sector. The PRC’s primary energy consumption growth is narrowing, intensifying competition within the energy sector, highlights Sinopec Economic and Technological Research Institute's latest versions of its annual energy outlook reports towards 2060.
In 2024, Sinopec estimates the PRC's
- total energy consumption reached 5.97 bn tonnes of standard coal, a 4.3 percent y-o-y increase
- coal consumption increased to 4.85 bn tonnes, accounting for 54 percent of total energy consumption
- non-fossil energy consumption rose to a 19.7 percent overall share, surpassing oil consumption for the first time
- non-fossil energy supply rose to 1.18 bn tonnes of standard coal, with solar and wind contributing significantly; installed capacity will reach around 1.38 bn kilowatts, generating 1.8 tn kWh
- total oil consumption declined to 750 million tonnes, attributed to weak industrial demand, a turning point in fuel vehicle growth and accelerated substitution by new energy and LNG vehicles
- gas consumption reached 430 bn cubic metres
- energy-related carbon emissions reached 10.66 bn tonnes
- terminal energy consumption reached 4.26 bn tonnes of standard coal
Under the combined influence of strong inertia and new momentum, total energy consumption is expected to continue growing, plateauing after 2030, the outlook says. During this period, non-fossil energy’s contribution to growth is anticipated to exceed 80 percent. Between 2035–60, total energy consumption will decline from a peak of approximately 6.94 bn tonnes of standard coal to around 5.95 bn tonnes.
Looking to the future, Sinopec believes
- coal consumption is approaching a plateau
- from now until 2029, coal consumption will stabilise above 4.8 bn tonnes, while its structure will adjust rapidly
- coal used for power generation will rise from 54 percent to 58 percent
- by 2060, total coal consumption will fall below 500 million tonnes
- from now until 2029, coal consumption will stabilise above 4.8 bn tonnes, while its structure will adjust rapidly
- oil consumption is showing signs of stagnation
- during the 15th 5-year plan period, oil consumption will stabilise above 770 million tonnes, peaking between 790 and 800 million tonnes
- by 2060, it will drop to around 260 million tonnes
- natural gas consumption is rebounding to medium-high growth
- industrial gas-for-coal substitution and LNG heavy trucks are driving growth
- an additional 110 bn cubic metres expected by 2030
- a peak platform period of 620 bn cubic metres is anticipated by 2035–40
- by 2060, consumption will decline to around 420 bn cubic metres
- renewable energy sector is rapidly expanding, though absorption challenges persist
- by 2045, non-fossil energy consumption will exceed 3.5 bn tonnes, accounting for over 50 percent of total energy use
- by 2060, it will reach 4.7 bn tonnes, representing 80 percent
- end-use energy is transitioning toward electrification and hydrogenation
- electricity consumption will surpass coal as the largest energy source and a primary driver of consumption growth
- a peak of over 4.6 bn tonnes will be reached during the 15th 5-year plan
- electrification and hydrogenation will rise from 32 percent in 2024 to 38 percent in 2030 and 71 percent in 2060
- carbon emissions from energy activities are stabilising
- it will peak above 10.8 bn tonnes during the 15th 5-year plan
- declining coal and oil consumption and increased chemical carbon fixation will aid reductions
- by 2060, residual carbon emissions of 2.1 bn tonnes will require offsetting through carbon capture, utilisation and storage and ecological carbon sinks