context: The PRC’s updated targets reaffirm its commitment to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and reach carbon neutrality by 2060. The key change lies in the expanded scope, which now covers all greenhouse gas emissions, not just CO2. However, the pledged 7–10 percent reduction remains ambiguous, since it is measured against an as‑yet undefined peak level. Renewable energy capacity targets also appear less ambitious than expected, given that the PRC met its previous targets six years early, though in line with Beijing's tendency to underpromise and overdeliver.
Xi Jinping 习近平 announced the PRC's updated climate targets, otherwise known as NDCs (nationally determined contributions), in a speech via video to the United Nations summit on Climate Change on 24 September. The NDC targets specify that by 2035
- the PRC's net greenhouse gas emissions across the whole economy will decline by 7–10 percent from the peak level, with efforts to achieve deeper reduction
- the share of non-fossil energy in total energy use will reach more than 30 percent
- total installed wind and solar capacity will exceed six-times the 2020 level, striving to reach 3.6 bn kW (roughly 180GW per year)
- forest stock volume will exceed 24 bn cubic meters
- NEVs (new energy vehicles) will become the mainstream in new vehicle sales
- the national carbon market will cover major high-emitting industries
- a climate-resilient society will be basically established
These new NDCs represent a strategic broadening from the energy sector to economy-wide coverage, and from CO2 reductions to all greenhouse gases, a senior climate policy expert told Caixin. This is unprecedented, the challenge is much greater and expectations for governance are higher, they added. For example, methane is the second most prominent greenhouse gas and has a high warming potential. While the PRC has issued an action plan, achieving cuts is difficult due to its dispersed sources, high costs and limited incentives.
Currently, CO2 mitigation efforts mainly cover power, steel, aluminium and cement industries. Extending to other sectors such as agriculture and transport will require more detailed management and comprehensive data collection.
Progress toward 2030 targets has been strong, with some already achieved ahead of schedule. Wind and solar capacity targets were met six years early. Targets for forests have also been met, with stock increasing to 20.988 bn cubic meters, making the ORC the fastest-growing contributor to global greening.
The green and low-carbon transition is the trend of our times, noted Xi. Although some countries move against the tide, the international community must stay the course, injecting positive momentum into international climate cooperation. The global green transition must also uphold fairness and justice, fully respect developing countries' right to growth, and narrow, not widen, gaps between North and South. Developed countries must lead in emission cuts and provide more financial and tech support, he added.