context: Over two months, the US military has deployed a substantial force of warships, fighter jets, bombers, marines, drones and spy planes in the Caribbean Sea. This marks the largest deployment there in decades. Additionally, Trump has authorised the deployment of the CIA to Venezuela, and Washington has conducted strikes on small Venezuelan vessels, which it claims carry narcotics, leading to casualties. The US frames these actions as a war on drug trafficking, but PRC experts suggest this is an intimidation campaign aimed at removing Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro from power.
The Trump administration is very likely to take military action against Venezuela, and such an operation will feature an apparent 'regime change' aim, argues Zhao Minghao 赵明昊 Fudan University Centre for American Studies deputy director. It could be a сrucial step in Trump's broader effort to increase control over the Western Hemisphere, which he views as the US’s traditional sphere of influence.
According to Zhao, during his second term, motivated by multiple factors such as addressing illegal immigration, reshaping economic supply chains and promoting great-power competition, Trump
- made strengthening control over the Western Hemisphere a central focus of his foreign policy
- seeks to expand the US influence within the Americas and pressure related countries to better align with his administration's immigration and economic policy agendas
- seeks to weaken the influence of other major powers in the Americas
- his administration has viewed the strengthening of ties between Latin American countries and the PRC as a 'wrongdoing,' attempting to limit their foreign relations through a 'carrot-and-stick' approach
- under pressure from the Trump administration, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum announced that Mexico would reduce its imports of PRC goods and components
- the US government demanded that Argentina terminate its currency swap agreement with the PRC
- cooperation between the PRC and Chile in the field of space monitoring has also been obstructed by the US
- the Trump administration has sought to restrict the expansion of the PRC's Belt and Road Initiative in the Americas, forcing Panama to announce its withdrawal from the initiative and viewing projects such as Peru's Chancay Port as major obstacles
- his administration has viewed the strengthening of ties between Latin American countries and the PRC as a 'wrongdoing,' attempting to limit their foreign relations through a 'carrot-and-stick' approach