Islamabad Memorandum: a symbol of declining US hegemony

Liu Zhongmin 刘中民 Shanghai International Studies University Middle East Research Institute director shares his observations on the Islamabad Memorandum, stating that

• the US made substantial concessions, while Iran's concessions were comparatively limited
• the US effectively granted Iran rights no less extensive than those contained in the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement
• the agreement was reached largely on the basis of conditions proposed by Iran
• the shift from a policy of 'maximum pressure aimed at forcing capitulation' to major concessions highlights a transformation in US policy: from 'strong coercion' to 'eagerness to compromise'

In his assessment, America's strategic retreat in the Middle East and the failure of its military deterrence signal that the era of US unipolar hegemony in the region is drawing to a close. The expert explains that US military operations against Iran not only failed to achieve their strategic objectives but also exposed multiple contradictions and limitations in Washington's global strategy.

Liu further argues that the US military presence in the Middle East is increasingly a burden rather than a deterrent. As evidence, he points to Iranian retaliatory strikes against US military facilities in Qatar, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait.

The expert also contends that the US alliance network in the region is facing a growing crisis of confidence. Gulf states, he argues, perceived American defensive efforts as primarily focused on protecting the US and Israel, leaving regional partners feeling isolated and vulnerable. This perceived double standard has, in Liu's view, undermined the credibility of US security guarantees. More broadly, he notes that the war against Iran reportedly received less support from US allies than any American military operation since the 1991 Gulf War.