context: The op-ed summarised below was published a few days after US president Donald Trump expressed doubt that the PRC would invade Taiwan, making a very rare comment about how his administration views the island's future.
Zhou Bo 周波 Tsinghua University Centre for International Strategy and Security senior fellow, retired People's Liberation Army senior colonel published an opinion piece in Chinese in the Observer and English in Time magazine.
Zhou outlined a roadmap for Washington to avoid a conflict over Taiwan, suggesting that president Donald Trump
- makes a formal rule not to let any Taiwanese leader make stopovers in important American cities like New York or Washington
- these stop-overs, unlike those made in Honolulu or Los Angeles before, are used by Taiwanese authorities to test the reaction of the US Government over any changing attitude
- controls the remarks of his lieutenants
- in the last ten years, a number of American generals have made sensational remarks on when the PRC might launch attacks on Taiwan
- warns Taiwanese leader Lai Ching-te to 'watch his words'
- withdraws US defence trainers from Taiwan
- the 1972 joint communique on establishing PRC–US diplomatic ties affirms the ultimate aim of withdrawing all American forces and military installations from the island
- encourages current Taiwanese authorities to recognise the 'One China' 1992 consensus between Beijing and Taipei, in order to kickstart cross-strait talks
- Beijing has said that any differences can be discussed under 'One China'
- this is the best way to defuse tensions across the strait and things could move from there
- without Taiwan agreeing to 'One China,' it is only a matter of when, rather than if, the conflict will occur