high-tech retaliations may extend to entire PRC-related global industry chains

context: The US announced further restrictions on advanced semiconductor exports to 140 PRC companies on 2 December 2024. The Ministry of Commerce responded swiftly with tit-for-tat measures, stopping exports of some critical minerals used in semiconductors to the US such as gallium, germanium, antimony and ultra-hard materials. As PRC–US high-tech rivalry intensifies, similar sanctions may follow, exacerbating decoupling as both sides step up 'self-reliance' drives.

Huo Jianguo 霍建国 China Society for WTO Studies vice director shares his insights on the Ministry of Commerce's latest measures

  • objectives
    • safeguard national security and interests
    • fulfil its international obligations, such as preventing proliferation
    • countermeasure against the US' abuse of export control measures and unilateral hegemonic practices
  • rationale of the measures
    • exert greater pressure on the US in procuring these critical minerals
      • with the PRC's dominance in the export of these products and relevant technological processes, the US faces challenges in finding alternative suppliers
        • these supply contracts are usually long-term and fixed, it is hard to switch suppliers easily
    • the measures are aimed to let the US' feel the 'pain' and costs from unilateralism so that it would return to the negotiating table with the PRC
  • future strategies for the PRC
    • PRC retaliatory measures may expand beyond entities and assets in PRC, to impact entire global industry chains related to the PRC
    • the PRC will work together with other like-minded cuntries to raise the US' costs for its radical containment strategy
  • three key significances of the measures
    • demonstrates the PRC's determination to defend its development rights and push for industrial upgrades
    • targets the US military-industrial complex and semiconductor industry directly
    • aims to deter further US provocations and encourage a more rational approach
      • facing higher pressure, US chip manufacturers are likely to put more pressure on the incoming Trump administration
      • relevant PRC industry associations in internet, semi-condutor and automobile are also calling for 'cautious procurement' of US chips and to step up domestic chip production
        • PRC market influence as the world's largest market will put even more pressure on US chip firms