context: Many analysts recognise Moon's constraints in addressing China's concerns over THAAD, although some have criticised the deal as insufficient. There is optimism both sides can move on nevertheless.
Senior analysts Wang Chong 王冲 Charhar Institute and Liang Yabin 梁亚滨 Pangoal Institute expect China-South Korea relations to get back on track after Moon Jae-in’s first visit to China, reports Wen Jing 文晶 from Sina International.
Liang acknowledges the fact that Moon is facing both domestic and US pressure on THAAD. Therefore, China should not expect Moon to completely remove THAAD. Since it now involves national dignity, he argues no South Korean government could easily concede on the issue. Liang argues that it is worth following whether and how South Korea's government follows up on the ‘three no’s’ deal.
Wang argues that the suspension or demolition of THAAD is fundamentally a ‘face’ problem. In the east such issues are resolved through ‘shelving disputes’, he says, recommending further dialogues between both sides to evaluate THAAD’s security issues for China. Wang and Liang argue that Moon’s visit to Chongqing has both symbolic and practical meanings
- symbolically, argues Liang
- to show South Korea’s long-term ties with the Chinese Communist Party as Chongqing was South Korea’s interim capital during WWII, and Chairman Mao 毛泽东 visited members of South Korea’s interim government in 1946
- practically, argues Wang
- to indicate South Korea’s focus on China’s growing central and western markets
Wang says China and South Korea should strengthen the bilateral relationship given their shared interests in cultural relations and the North Korea nuclear issue.