context: Expectations are high for the G20 summit, following disappointing results from the recent APEC summit in Papua New Guinea and ongoing frustration with WTO reform. While a range of issues are on the agenda, Chinese analysts have expressed early interest in the meeting's impact on trade war tensions.
Despite keen interest in outcomes of the Trump–Xi meeting on the sidelines of the G20 summit, they are unlikely to moderate current tensions in the China–US relationship, writes Lu Feng 卢锋 Beijing University National School of Development professor. However, through acceptance of a bilateral framework agreement, both sides can increase cooperation and decrease tensions. Improvements in China–US relations will in turn benefit the G20, helping to protect global economic development.
US unilateral policies damage the interests of other nations and create tremendous global economic uncertainty, writes Lu. In response, Chinese policymakers have redoubled efforts to promote open and inclusive economic development. Despite these measures, the Chinese economy is facing increasing downward pressure, increasing the need to eliminate institutional obstacles to economic growth and control trade war risks.
In the medium and long term, Lu argues, China needs to coordinate the economic needs of both the US and China in order to continue to adhere to principles avoiding conflict and confrontation.