context: The Biden administration's chip ban in September 2022 restricted PRC imports of hardware essential for R&D. The advent of ChatGPT in December 2022 soon shocked the government and the tech community, revealing its lag behind US leadership in AI. Since then, the PRC AI sector has been humbled and focused on playing catch-up. Yet, US sanctions are not the only cause of the PRC's AI setback. The lack of patient and fundamental research has hampered meaningful progress domestically. Computer vision unicorns, over-reliant on government subsidies and contracts, failed to profit and created a bubble in 2021.
AI in the Trump 2.0 US would likely see reduced regulatory barriers, including a ‘Manhattan Project’ for AI, says Zhang Yi 张毅 iiMedia Research CEO, which aims to
- boost capital inflows
- speed up commercialisation
- reduce regulation
Trump’s AI strategy could hinder the ability of non-US companies to benefit from American AI advancements, anticipates Zhang. PRC companies need to prepare for this possibility and make some arrangements in advance to ensure ample room for response regarding
- research and development
- investment
- supply chains
- layout of downstream application products
Trump will likely reinforce measures to curb the PRC’s AI growth, predicts Wu Shenkuo 吴沈括 Beijing Normal University PhD advisor and Internet Society of China’s Research Centre deputy director. Wu foresees a consistent trajectory of tightening regulations incorporating eonomic sanctions on PRC AI development.
Some legal experts believe that transformative changes in American AI regulations are unlikely, adds Yicai, as
- ChatGPT has heightened public awareness and perception of AI risks
- campaign platforms primarily aim to stir voter emotions, so some elements may not accurately translate into actual policies, and certain related statements remain relatively vague
Trump’s AI priorities and regulatory stance are documented in Yicai’s report, such as
- high energy demands of AI data centres
- repealing Biden’s Executive Order on 'safe, reliable, and trustworthy AI' which could remove restrictions on US IaaS providers in transactions with foreign entities training large-scale AI models
Trump’s ‘American AI Initiative’ in 2019 is likely to continue, emphasising AI as a core research area and increasing access to federal datasets, algorithms and computational resources for US-based researchers and businesses, according to Yicai. Meanwhile, Trump allies are drafting AI-focused executive orders to establish the US as an AI leader and potentially institute industry-led bodies to safeguard systems from foreign threats.
Elon Musk’s potential role in Trump’s AI Policy is mentioned in Yicai’s report, such as
- Trump’s hint that Musk might serve as an AI advisor,
- Musk could lead a ‘government efficiency commission’