context: These experts' comments indicate the steel sector is likely to experience at least the same level of output decline as last winter. Implementation of ultra-low emission standards in the steel sector alongside environmental inspections also suggest that environmental requirements remain stringent and enforced.
Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE) has not relaxed this winter's pollution control requirements by setting lower pollution reduction targets, say environment experts close to MEE. The 2018 winter pollution control plan requires that both average PM2.5 concentration levels and heavily polluted days drop 3 percent year-on-year, lower than the 5 percent initially proposed. The ministry lowered targets because
- this year's base-level pollution is relatively low, as Jingjinji and surrounding regions exceeded pollution reduction targets last year
- unfavourable weather conditions make pollution reduction more difficult
The experts add that city-specific targets and accountability mechanisms continue pressuring local governments, who are also incentivised by additional central financial support for air quality improvements. Many cities, including Handan and Tangshan in Hebei and Linfen in Shanxi, have released production suspension regulations. Jiemian also notes that this year's production suspension has expanded to include areas outside of Jingjinji such as the Yangtze River Delta. The draft 'Air pollution control plan for Yangtze River Delta autumn and winter 2018-19' aims to achieve around 5 percent reductions in both PM2.5 levels and the number of heavily polluted days.
Daily crude steel output might experience some level of decline as production suspension policies kick in, predicts Wang Guoqing 王国清 Lange Steel Information Research Centre director.