context: While China agreed to unprecedentedly harsh sanctions in 2017, some warn the limit has now been reached. Wang Peng 王鹏 advises against any further steps which could further deteriorate ties with Pyongyang.
China should ensure it does not become a target of North Korea, argues Wang Peng 王鹏 Charhar Institute research fellow and University of Bristol adjunct research fellow.
Stakeholders should learn to deal with a de facto nuclearised North Korea before denuclearisation, suggests Wang. China cannot afford to further sanction or appease North Korea, he says. Future deterioration of China-North Korea relations goes against China’s interests, Wang highlights: China is vulnerable, should a war occur.
China can ensure its relative security by continuing its current North Korea policy, and facilitating the worsening of North Korea’s relations with the US and Japan, argues Wang. China, facing a de facto nuclear North Korea, can minimise its security challenge by ensuring its ties with Pyongyang are better than those of the West, contends Wang.
China’s decision to not attend the Vancouver meeting was rational, argues Wang, given
- China's opposition to unilateral sanctions on North Korea
- China cannot join the enemy bloc it fought against during the Korean War
Wang outlined possible unfavourable outcomes if China attended the meeting alone
- China blocks the US-led unilateral sanction
- China will be blamed for only implementing UN Resolutions at a modest level
- North Korea would disapprove
- China tries but fails to block the US-led unilateral sanctions and loses face
- China participates in the sanction and China-North Korea relations further deteriorates
However, Wang argues that the Vancouver meeting was favourable to China, as it further restrains North Korea’s nuclear program in line with China’s interests and policy given the security threat.