A declining working-age population is behind the growing employment index, says Zeng Xiangquan 曾湘泉 Renmin University professor. The working-age population has declined by 17.96 million cumulatively over the past five consecutive years, he adds.
The drop in labour force supply, says Zeng, is due to
- near-depletion of rural labour force transfers
- young workers undergoing more extended education
- labourers demanding more time off as wages increase
- fewer retirees returning to work, due to more generous pensions
Zeng says employment jumped during 2016 as the economy improved and enterprises undergoing de-capacity resettled laid-off workers.
The biggest risk for job-seekers is being poorly compensated rather than being unemployed, says Zeng. However, indicators such as wages, working hours, and social insurance levels, which reveal the actual quality of employment, are not shown in official statistics, he adds.
Zeng suggests the government should
- reveal the surveyed unemployment rate on the basis of the current registered rate
- improve the unemployment registration system
- release statistics on the variation of unemployment figures