context: The PRC's energy sector is undergoing rapid structural transformation. Transportation fuel demand reached its peak in 2023, and CNPC (China National Petroleum Corporation) now projects that the world’s largest oil importer will see overall oil demand peak by 2025.
Outlining the main points of its annual energy outlook, Wu Mouyuan 吴谋远 CNPC (China National Petroleum Corporation) Economic and Technological Research Institute vice president notes
- global geopolitical and trade realignments will reshape energy transformation pathways
- the PRC's proactive efforts to integrate clean energy and secure supplies position it as a leader in sustainable energy development
- green hydrogen and advanced gas systems are pivotal to achieving carbon neutrality and modernising energy infrastructure
Concerning the outlook for energy in the PRC
- primary energy consumption will peak at 7 bn tonnes of standard coal by 2035
- fossil energy demand and energy-related carbon emissions to peak around 2028
- oil consumption to peak in 2025 at 770 million tonnes, after a slight increase in 2024 to 756 million tonnes (+0.04% y-o-y)
- oil consumption will fall to 240 million tonnes by 2060, a decrease of nearly 70 percent from the peak level
- by 2040, the share of transportation fuel in oil demand will fall from 50 to 33 percent, while chemical feedstock will rise, surpassing transportation fuels by 7 percentage points
- oil consumption will fall to 240 million tonnes by 2060, a decrease of nearly 70 percent from the peak level
- refining capacity will peak in 2028 and gradually decline thereafter
- refining capacity will reach about 956 million tonnes in 2024, ranking first in the world, accounting for about 18 percent of the world's total refining capacity
- by 2035
- refined oil consumption will drop to 240 million to 290 million tonnes, a decrease of 25 to 40 percent from 2023
- gasoline demand will drop to 80 million to 100 million tonnes, a decrease of 35 to 50 percent from 2023
- diesel demand will drop to 100 million to 120 million tonnes, also a decrease of 35 to 50 percent from 2023
- aviation kerosene demand will be 60.8 million tonnes, which will increase by more than 70 percent compared with 2023
- chemical oil consumption will increase to 210 million tonnes, an increase of 35 percent over 2023
- natural gas demand will reach a peak plateau period of 620 bcm to 650 bcm in 2035
- gas-fired power will play a crucial role in enhancing grid flexibility, with installed capacity reaching 400 GW by 2060
- green hydrogen will achieve large-scale commercialisation after 2030
- by 2060
- domestic energy production will exceed 60 bn tonnes of standard coal
- electrification will account for 63 percent of terminal energy use, driven by rapid growth in emerging industries