context: Academics and policymakers are approaching consensus on policy neither controlling nor encouraging births, but ensuring people are biologically, financially and socially able to have children should they wish.
Ren Yuan 任远 Fudan University Institute of Population Research argues China is not in the middle of a demographic crisis. Risks are manageable because
- delayed retirement can increase labour supply
- healthier, more affluent elderly can build a strong grey economy
- children of migrant workers (whether settled in cities or left behind in rural areas) can make up a vibrant younger generation
Rather than encouraging more births, Ren advocates better serving the needs of those willing to raise or are raising children. Policy shouldn't rule out how many children a couple can have, insists Ren, but should focus on making people not be afraid of having children when they intend to. Such services include
- access to assisted reproductive technology
- prenatal and perinatal maternal care
- birth defect detection during pregnancy, baby care, newborn screening and immunisation plan
- prevention of unintended pregnancy with access to family planning and contraceptive methods
Ren argues for expanding the scope of population research and comprehensively tackling issues related to low fertility, ageing population, migration, population health and human capital.
He Dan 贺丹 China Population And Development Research Center director supports family planning and moving birth policy higher in the state's agenda. Yet, He acknowledges birth decline is inevitable as demographic transition correlates with social development. Instead of implementing one-dimensional pro-natal policies, more attention should be paid to enhance labour skills and population health. That requires dedicated investments in vocational education, and prevention and control of diseases, disability and injury.
He urges expanding residential- and community-based day care facilities for children aged 0-3 years old. This can partially resolve work-family conflicts many young parents struggle with and creates jobs, says He.
He argues that an ageing population does not mean that China's demographic dividend is disappearing. Rejecting demographic determinism theory, He holds that the yield of demographic dividend depends more on the extent policies are aligned with population size and structure, geographic distribution and human capital stock. She urges the government to promote mass education, lifelong learning and free movement of people.