Zheng Yongnian on the Thucydides Trap

context: In his opening remarks during talks with US President Donald Trump, Xi Jinping 习近平 wondered whether the two nations could 'overcome the Thucydides Trap and create a new paradigm of major-country relations.' It was not the first time he had referred to IR scholar Graham Allison, who argued in his best-selling book that when an 'established power' is confronted with a 'rising power', conflict usually results.

Zheng Yongnian  郑永年 Chinese University of Hong Kong (Shenzhen) School of Public Policy dean gave an interview to Greater Bay Area Review, speaking about

  • the Thucydides Trap
    • whether or not one accepts the concept, one objective fact remains: transitions of power between established and rising powers have often been accompanied by war
    • even in the few cases where full-scale war did not break out (e.g., the collapse of the Soviet Union) the outcome still involved one side being completely defeated in the competition
    • some IR scholars remain convinced that a structural conflict between the PRC and the US cannot be avoided
    • the situation today is different
      • the world has entered an era of a 'de facto G2': the PRC and the US are the two superpowers, and it is an established reality
      • the question of how these two superpowers can avoid falling into conflict and instead move towards substantive cooperation must be confronted directly
      • the most important question in bilateral relations today is whether the zero-sum logic can be broken, opening a path towards 'win-win' outcomes
    • 'Chinese wisdom' is extremely important
      • the PRC's understanding of major-power relations and IR is fundamentally different from traditional Western realism
      • the PRC, as a major power, is unique, and its unique resources give confidence in escaping the Thucydides Trap
    • for major powers, avoiding war is extremely difficult
      • yet this does not mean that stability is a utopian fantasy
        • stability is a concrete objective that can be pursued through effort
        • the PRC–US summit is moving in that direction and may even have a more far-reaching historical significance than Nixon’s visit to the PRC
        • building a constructive PRC–US relationship of strategic stability, agreed at the summit, is a long-term, systemic project that cannot be accomplished overnight
  • the next stage of PRC–US relations, understood at three levels
    • minimum stability
      • as two superpowers, the PRC and the US must, at the very least, avoid direct war
        • if this bottom line is maintained, local conflicts in other regions of the world will remain manageable regional issues
        • if they were to enter into direct conflict, that could become the prelude to a world war
    • development of positive relations on the basis of stability
      • the two sides can
        • resolve problems through dialogue and consultation
        • continue to develop economic and trade cooperation
        • maintain normalised communication on regional and global affairs
      • simply avoiding conflict is not enough
        • both sides must continue moving forward
    • building a new international order for the future
      • this new order should
        • not be a traditional structure in which one side overwhelms the other
        • not be a battlefield of zero-sum competition
        • move towards a deeper form of new international relations based on peaceful coexistence, mutual coexistence, and pragmatic cooperation