context: The protracted safeguard review highlights the tension between food security—maintaining domestic production capacity—and supply security, achieved through stable import flows. Its outcome will signal how Beijing balances these competing objectives within the dual circulation framework and ongoing efforts to manage risk exposure in global protein markets.
The Ministry of Commerce has again extended its safeguard investigation into imported beef, pushing the deadline to 26 January 2026.
Already delayed once in August 2025, official references to ‘complexity’ reflect the constraints created by the PRC’s production shortfalls and its concentrated import structure.
The petition came from the China Animal Agriculture Association and nine major producing regions, citing pressure from rising import volumes.
Although feedlot margins have been positive for six consecutive months—with some areas reporting over C¥4,000 profit per head—the sector’s fundamentals remain fragile.
The breeding herd is roughly 38.5 million head, far below the 50 million required to raise self-sufficiency. Average carcass weight is only 165 kg per head, well behind Brazil’s 260 kg and the US’s 350 kg. These gaps mean domestic beef remains 15–25 percent more expensive than imported frozen product.
The PRC’s supply structure further limits the scope for restrictive measures. For 2025, consumption is projected at 9.85 million tonnes against production of 7.55 million tonnes, leaving a 2.3 million tonne deficit fully met by imports. Any tariff or quota action risks driving up prices for consumers and downstream processors—including catering, hotpot base manufacturers and ready-meal producers—where imported beef accounts for over 60 percent of inputs.
Import dependence is both large and concentrated.
The PRC imported 2.87 million tonnes in 2024, and January–October 2025 arrivals reached 2.3474 million tonnes. Brazil alone supplies 51.69 percent, with Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay together exceeding 73 percent.
Past suspensions triggered by South American foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks caused short-term domestic price volatility, underscoring vulnerability to supply shocks. Demand growth remains firm, with per-capita consumption rising from 5.3 kg in 2015 to 7.8 kg in 2024.
Global trade shifts add further complexity.
The US removal of a 40-per-cent tariff on Brazilian beef gives Brazil an alternative high-value destination, and increasing the PRC’s exposure should safeguard measures to tighten access. The extension gives Beijing more time to assess whether a 2.9 percent import rise constitutes ‘serious injury’ and to advance diversification efforts, including recent access for Mongolia and renewed assessments of Russia.