context: The conflict in Iran is not merely a secular security issue but also a religious one, argues Zheng Yongnian 郑永年 Chinese University of Hong Kong Advanced Institute of Global and Contemporary China Studies director. He admits that many of the Middle East's major challenges may be difficult for PRC experts, as materialists, to fully comprehend, and that overall understanding of the region remains limited.
The conflict in Iran is both a secular struggle for interests and a 'religious war 2.0', argues Zheng Yongnian 郑永年 Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen Advanced Institute of Global and Contemporary China Studies director in a recent interview with the GBA Review.
Zheng explains that Iran is a theocracy, and US President Trump is influenced by his religious background when making decisions related to Iran. After the killing of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Zheng continues, Trump called him an 'evil' person. In Zheng's view, this suggests that the US's operation is not just secular but also centred around the concept of 'evil,' which differs greatly in meaning between secular discourse and religious context. The expert believes Trump has a strong religious sentiment and seeks 'to enter heaven.' Therefore, using force to eliminate what he perceives as 'evil' aligns with his religious values, claims Zheng.
Zheng thinks that both secular and religious dimensions are at play, as the operation 'Epic Fury'
- seeks to protect Israel given its geographical proximity (secular dimension)
- is a contest between two 'Gods' (religious dimension)
In the religious sense, there is no space for negotiation or compromise between two 'Gods,' he explains. In contrast, secular interests allow for negotiation even with an 'evil' opponent, because it comes down to the distribution of interests. Trump’s objective, argues Zheng, is regime change in Iran, as he does not regard Ali Khamenei as a negotiable counterpart. This explains why the operation was launched when Washington and Tehran were engaged in negotiations that appeared to be progressing well.
Zheng also speaks of the serious misjudgment of Trump globally, with his capabilities being greatly underestimated. He explains that many believe that Trump makes bold statements but ultimately compromises, yet in reality, he has never truly compromised. Zheng admits that the US president is flexible but claims that he consistently holds firm to his core positions. He calls this a defining feature of 'Trumpism,' acknowledging that the understanding of 'Trumpism' remains very superficial.
In Zheng's opinion, Trump's religious background and business experience shape his actions. He states that Trump, although outspoken on social media, is 'a man of action' and in dealing with him, one must neither underestimate him nor his ability to use American power.