context: PRC US experts describe the concept of 'constructive strategic stability between the PRC and the US', agreed at the recent PRC–US summit, as an event of 'milestone historical significance', a 'rewriting of the underlying logic of international relations' and 'an important conceptual innovation and policy breakthrough'. The authors below warn that although this framework offers a new lens for observing and understanding the relationship, it does not imply that bilateral relations have fully escaped risks and challenges.
Acknowledging the importance of the 'constructive strategic stability' framework, Sun Chenghao 孙成昊 Tsinghua University Centre for International Strategy and Security and Zhang Xueyu 张学玉 Peking University Institute for Global Cooperation and Understanding argue that its introduction does not mean that PRC–US relations have fully escaped risks and challenges
- on the one hand, viewing the PRC as America’s primary strategic competitor remains a relatively solid bipartisan consensus within the US
- even after the summit, many voices in American public discourse continue to interpret PRC–US interactions through the lens of winning and losing
- the fundamental logic of US PRC policy has not undergone a substantive change, and the Taiwan issue remains its most sensitive dimension
- pro-Taiwan forces within the US have not weakened, and congressional pro-Taiwan factions and China hawks continue pressuring the executive branch
- whether the US continues arms sales to Taiwan or expands US–Taiwan interactions will continue to directly affect the stability of bilateral relations
- if Congress once again advances PRC-related legislation, or if relevant agencies adopt more confrontational measures, bilateral relations could face renewed turbulence
- on the other hand, the US’s domestic political cycle, particularly the upcoming 2026 midterm elections, will continue shaping the Trump administration’s PRC policy
- Trump faces political pressure over issues such as Iran, energy prices and the domestic economy
- if the economic and counternarcotics outcomes produced during this visit help improve economic and social conditions domestically, stable PRC–US relations could become a political asset for Trump
- yet as the midterm elections approach, PRC-related issues are still likely to reemerge as important tools for both parties to mobilise voters
- although election outcomes are ultimately determined mainly by domestic issues, the PRC factor has become deeply intertwined in many American domestic debates and will likely be pushed back to the center of the US political agenda