context: Sanae Takaichi took office as the prime minister of Japan on 21 October 2025. Less than a week later, US President Donald Trump visited Japan, its most important ally in the Asia–Pacific. It was his first visit in six years.
Takaichi represents the hard-line conservative faction of Japan's LDP (Liberal Democratic Party), states Zhang Yun 张云 Nanjing University School of International Relations. Takaichi's past positions on the PRC have raised concerns about the potential negative impact she could have on PRC–Japan relations. During Trump's visit, she called for the start of a 'golden era' of relations with the US, which only served to reinforce the questions.
Zhang argues that the future direction of Takaichi's diplomacy will depend on
- the dynamics of domestic politics and the sustainability of her cabinet
- Takaichi is Japan's first female prime minister, and in structural terms she represents the beginning of a genuine multiparty era in the country
- external factors, such as
- the trajectory of PRC–US relations
- unlike the Biden administration, Trump places less emphasis on values and ideology in managing alliances but adheres to a more pragmatic principle
- in Japan, there is considerable dissatisfaction over Trump's compromises in trade negotiations with the PRC, even as he has maintained a harsh stance toward allies
- Tokyo remains deeply wary of potentially aggressive diplomatic moves by Washington toward Beijing, and Takaichi is cautious of a potential shock like the 'Nixon schock' in 1972 when president Richard Nixon visited the PRC without informing Japan
- the direction of Trump's economic policies toward Japan
- the US–Japan tariff agreement reached in July will pose a challenge to Takaichi's diplomacy, in particular regarding how to advance Japan's US$550 bn commitment of investment in the US
- how these funds are deployed will directly affect Japan's economic development potential and could become a crucial element in future power dynamics within the US–Japan alliance
- the US–Japan tariff agreement reached in July will pose a challenge to Takaichi's diplomacy, in particular regarding how to advance Japan's US$550 bn commitment of investment in the US
- the trajectory of PRC–US relations
Zhang concludes that while Takaichi's administration and the strengthening of the US–Japan alliance pose significant challenges to PRC–Japan ties, it is also important to recognise the internal and external constraints on Takaichi's foreign policy. He notes that the relationship between the PRC and Japan is like rowing against a current: if the boat does not move forward, it will inevitably fall behind.