Shanghai Cooperation Organisation power structure and decision-making

context: The 24th summit of the Council of Heads of State of the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation) was held in Astana on 3-4 July under the presidency of Kazakhstan. Numerous bilateral and multilateral meetings were held on the sidelines of the event. During the summit, Belarus joined the SCO as the tenth full member state, and it was decided that the PRC will assume the presidency of the SCO for 2024-25. The summit also adopted the Astana Declaration and approved 25 strategic documents, covering security, trade, energy and other fields.

Guan Guihai 关贵海 Peking University Institute of International and Strategic Studies executive vice president recently published an opinion piece, summarising issues facing the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation).

  • power structure
    • the PRC and Russia have been the twin engines of the organisation
    • the trouble with this structure is that there are various factors of instability in the model of the two countries sharing leadership
    • the participation of India has also had an impact on the leading positions of the two countries
    • the power structure is changing with India, Pakistan and Iran's participation, resulting in a two-layer structure
      • the PRC, Russia and India (the first layer)
      • the PRC, Russia, India plus Central Asia, Iran and Pakistan (the second layer)
    • Chinese scholars believe that the PRC, Russia and India have four possible modes of interaction within the SCO
      • a strategic triangle
        • the PRC, Russia and India building a relationship of mutual coordination
      • PRC– Russia joint leadership
        • the twin-engine mode, with India participating as an ordinary member
      • bipolarisation
        • Russia– India and PRC– Pakistan forming a relationship of confrontation
      • Russian dominance
        • the PRC and India being marginalised and Russia becoming the centre
    • the final mode of interaction is yet to emerge
  • decision-making mechanism
    • as per the SCO charter, resolutions of all SCO institutions are passed via consultation without voting
    • a resolution would be considered approved if no member country expresses opposition during consultation
    • this form of decision-making sees all members as equal in status and will
    • the problem is that proposals on pragmatic cooperation are often subject to endless foot-dragging, especially initiatives on economic cooperation proposed by the PRC
    • Chinese scholars believe that, while adhering to 'consultation-based unanimity' on major subjects, the SCO needs to adopt the principle of simple majority to avoid undermining efficiency
    • the Russian side doesn't agree, stressing that 'oriental nations' ways of expressing opposition is implicit
    • different Chinese and Russian attitudes toward SCO decision-making mechanism are motivated by both their pursuits of control over the organisation's agenda and their say in it
    • the principle of consultation-based unanimity has thus become a useful card for influencing SCO decision-making processes