context: Rapid expansion of renewables is straining grid capacity, prompting planners to consider tightening restrictions on renewable power output to maintain curtailment within a 5 percent threshold. This move could potentially hinder the pace of the energy transition. Data from the National Renewable Energy Absorption Monitoring and Early Warning Centre reveals that in February, some provinces experienced wind and solar power curtailment rates above the threshold.
The PRC's curtailment rate for renewable energy may increase above 5 percent in 2024-25 and reach 10 percent by 2030, predicts Zhang Jinping 张金平 China Electric Power Research Institute New Energy Research Centre Dispatch Office director in a speech at the PV (photovoltaic) Market Development Forum on 26 March.
China’s new energy curtailment rate was only 2.4 percent in 2023 (meaning a utilisation rate of 97.6 percent) and has been kept below 5 percent since 2019, reports Caixin. Yet rapid growth in installed capacity is placing pressure on renewable power consumption. New energy generation reached 1.47 bn TWh in 2023, according to NEA (National Energy Administration) data, accounting for 15.8 percent of total power consumption.
Intermittency and volatility of renewable energy are the main factors affecting consumption, according to Zhang. As the proportion of renewable installed capacity has grown, intra- and inter-day volatility of the power grid has increased significantly. Zhang further highlighted challenges facing renewable power, noting
- centralised solar and wind bases
- projects are mainly located in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Qinghai and Gansu where resources are rich, but local grids are poor and there is no consumption space
- distributed solar
- in provinces with large distributed solar such as Shandong, Hebei and Henan, it is still difficult to meet peak load demand
- renewable energy gradually entering the power market
- renewable power transactions must also clarify curves in addition to volume and price, making transactions more complex
- phenomena of ‘no delivery at low valleys or peaks’ in cross-regional transmission
- green electricity trading consumption scenarios are unclear and the transaction volume small
- green attributes of renewable energy not fully reflected
To improve the level of renewable power consumption, Zhang suggests
- optimising the layout of newly installed capacity
- consider the fluctuating characteristics of renewable power
- formulate reasonable renewable power utilisation targets
- improving the market mechanism for renewable consumption
- increase inter- and intra-provincial trading organisations
- increase power market consumption of renewables and strengthen connection with the spot market
- further expand scale of green power trading to include distributed power sources