context: A conference on the Russia-Ukraine conflict and its impact on the global pattern was held on 18 January 2023 by China Renmin University's Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies. In this op. ed., currently top of the Aisixiang ratings, Ding Gang 丁刚 Institute fellow and senior People's Daily editorialist underscores the need to grasp 'change and invariance' in the global pattern realistically.
Ding Gang 丁刚 stated at the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies' conference on the Russia-Ukraine conflict that 2023 is a critical year for the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which displays a 'game between change and invariance', affecting relationships and rules between major powers and how the US and the West view China's rise and modernisation.
It shows what is changing and what is not in terms of international relations and the role of major powers. The US and the West view China's rise differently based on the outcome of the conflict. Basic elements of the old international relations system are difficult to change in the short term.
China's future role, he argues, is not to build a brand-new international system. The outcome of the conflict 'may have exceeded' (i.e. confounded) the expectations' of many, including experts, who underestimated the strengths and tenacity of Western civilisation in maintaining the post-war order. Specifically
- Europe has become more internally solid and united with the US and NATO
- dependence on the US and the West has increased, making security a serious issue
- EU sanctions on Russia are expected to be long-term
- this may only change if there is significant progress towards resolving the conflict.