PRC–US relationship: 'first trade, then politics and security'

context: As Washington ramps up unilateral deals and tariff threats, Beijing is doubling down on multilateralism and building ties with nearby states, widening trade links also with the Global South. The aim is to cut reliance on key markets and curb political risk, while also expanding global influence, as PRC–US rivalry is seen as a test of wider economic and political strength.

Zheng Yongnian 郑永年 Chinese University of Hong Kong (Shenzhen) School of Public Policy dean shares his insights on the recent PRC–US heads of state meeting in May 2026

  • Zheng is cautiously optimistic about the bilateral relationship
    • strategic significance of the recent visit
      • the PRC and the US is rebuilding a new global order
    • the current dynamic is different from the Cold War model because the two economies remain deeply connected
      • full decoupling is unrealistic and mutually damaging
  • the significance of trade in this visit
    • the US delegation comprises a list of powerful executives, which is an intentional move by the U
    • the visiting executives reflect the US’s main comparative advantages
      • e.g. agriculture, boeing aircraft, energy, finance and advanced technology
    • it also shows that they recognise the importance of the PRC market and its stability amid a volatile world
      • the idea narrative about foreign capital leaving the PRC is inaccurate
    • the PRC will further open up while maintaining security in its supply chains
  • more US tech restrictions are inevitable
    • the PRC will continue to boost its own resilience and promote sharing of technology, especially in areas like High Speed Rail and AI with Global South countries
    • this underscores the importance of maintaining ‘overall national strength’, especially the PRC’s advantages in controlling the 'full industrial chain'
      • it acts as a deterrent against more US restrictions
  • evaluating the success of the summit
    • defines success as achieving ‘win-win’ economic agreements
      • e.g. the PRC purchasing US agricultural goods, energy, and aircraft—serving both the PRC’s needs and US domestic political interests
    • deep economic interdependence can anchor the relationship and reduce the risk of escalation into Cold War-style confrontation
  • policy recommendations
    • PRC–US relationship can follow a sequence of ‘first trade, then politics, then security’
      • trade is described as the stabilising foundation
      • build political trust gradually in the process, and later address sensitive security issues such as Taiwan and the South China Sea
      • this is a gradual, step-by-step process that could create a virtuous cycle if initial cooperation succeeds
    • reframing security disputes
      • while Taiwan and the South China Sea are core sovereignty issues for the PRC, the US views them primarily through a geopolitical lens, leaving room for pragmatic accommodation
      • e.g. after resolving the sovereignty issue in the South China Sea, the PRC can open up its facilities to commercial vessels and even military ones
    • PRC–US cooperation can reshape the global order
      • e.g. in international maritime security, there are common interests between the two countries as both would benefit from free passage