context: In Q1 2026, the PRC pork market was in a key phase of adjustment. Capacity was being trimmed from a high level, while prices remained weak but showed signs of stabilising. Recent policy moves focus on capacity control, market alerts and stronger farm operators. Q1 data show that supply is still ample, but the sow herd has moved back close to its normal target level. The main risk is that farms may hold back pigs or expand too fast if they expect prices to rebound.
The PRC pork sector is moving from oversupply towards a more stable phase. Recent policy moves have set out a clearer path for managing the pig cycle, with a focus on capacity control, market monitoring and support for stronger farm operators.
A new expert committee on pig market monitoring and early warning has been set up, chaired by Qiao Shiyan 谯仕彦 Chinese Academy of Engineering academician. Its role is to improve data tracking, guide market expectations and help reduce sharp swings in supply and prices. A separate action plan for new farm operators also gives support to family farms, co-operatives and other mid-sized groups.
Q1 data support this policy push. The sow herd stood at 39.04 million head at the end of the quarter, down 1.5 percent q-o-q and 3.3 percent y-o-y. It was equal to 100.1 percent of the normal target level, which means capacity has returned to the green range. Total pig numbers also fell slightly to 423 million head.
Supply, however, is still ample. First-quarter pig slaughter reached 200 million head, up 2.8 percent y-o-y, while pork output rose 4.2 percent to 16.69 million tonnes. This explains why prices remain under pressure. In March, the national farm-gate pig price fell to C¥10.59 per kg, down 30.3 percent y-o-y. Retail pork prices in county and township markets also fell to C¥22.26 per kg.
Trade data point to the same trend. First-quarter pork imports fell 35.3 percent y-o-y to 178,000 tonnes, while exports rose 85.1 percent to 13,900 tonnes. This shows that domestic supply is strong, import needs are lower, and PRC pork products are gaining some ground overseas, though exports remain small.
Overall, capacity has moved back into a more normal range, but the market has not fully recovered. Prices are still weak, while supply remains high. Policy is now aimed at smoothing the cycle rather than pushing output higher. For farms, the key is to avoid rushed choices: do not hold back pigs, do not expand blindly and keep production plans tied to real demand.