context: PRC pig capacity policy is moving from holding numbers steady to smoothing the cycle and lifting output per sow. The target for the normal sow herd has been cut to around 37.5m head. This is not a blunt cut. It reflects higher breeding output, flat pork demand and sharper swings in the pig cycle. Policy now looks beyond sow numbers to piglets, fattening pigs, large farms and breeding stock.
MARA (Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs) Plan for regulation of pig production capacity (2026 revision) sets the normal national sow herd at around 37.5m head. This is the second cut to the target since February 2024.
Wang Zuli 王祖力 MARA’s pig industry monitoring and warning expert panel member and Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development researcher, said the change is not a simple capacity cut. It aims to ease swings in the pig cycle and make the sector steadier and more efficient.
The sow target has moved down from 39m head to 37.5m head because breeding output has risen. During the 14th 5-year plan, the number of weaned piglets per sow per year rose from 19.9 to 23.4. Some leading firms now exceed 28. The same number of sows can now supply more market pigs. With pork demand flat, keeping the sow herd too high would raise the risk of surplus output and farm losses.
37.5m head does not mean raising fewer pigs for its own sake. It means matching the capacity target more closely to real supply and demand. The plan stresses output per sow, supply–demand fit and a safety buffer. It seeks to stop surplus capacity from pushing down prices, while avoiding cuts that could weaken pork supply.
The main shift is earlier and tighter control. The green zone for the sow herd has narrowed from 92–105 percent of the normal level to 92–103 percent. This means even a small shift away from the target can trigger earlier warning and action.
The control chain has also widened. Policy now aims to steer sows over the long term, piglets in the medium term and fattening pigs in the short term. This should help officials spot market shifts earlier and cut policy lag. The plan also sets up a tiered chain of duty, with central oversight, provincial lead duty, city and county follow-through and farm-level response.
The word 'comprehensive' in the plan’s title marks a shift in policy aim. Earlier rules focused on stopping sharp price swings and keeping sow numbers steady. The new plan puts more weight on matching supply and demand, smoothing the cycle, improving herd structure and keeping the industry safe. It looks not only at headcount, but also at output, farm returns, disease control and market strength.
The plan still seeks to hold the industry base. The 37.5m sow target leaves a safety buffer for pork supply. The number of large pig farms must stay above 130,000. Local officials are told not to add extra rules at each level or use one-size-fits-all curbs. The plan also calls for steady breeding-pig supply from core breeding farms, to protect the sector’s genetic base.