context: Pakistan has emerged as a mediator in the US–Israel–Iran conflict, now in its second month. On 24 March, Pakistan offered to host talks between Washington and Tehran. On 29 March, foreign ministers of Pakistan, Türkiye, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia gathered in Islamabad for consultations. On 31 March, Wang Yi 王毅 PRC foreign minister and Mohammad Ishaq Dar Pakistan deputy prime minister, foreign minister presented a five-point initiative on the situation in the Middle East in Beijing.
Pakistan's diplomacy is now very flexible as it acts as a 'messenger' between the US and Iran, argues Liu Zongyi 刘宗义 Shanghai Institute of International Studies Centre for South Asian Studies director in a recent interview with Guanchazhe. He believes this 'diplomatic flexibility' or 'urgency to intervene' is a strategy Islamabad had to adopt under extreme external pressure. The root cause lies in its awkward position—a strategic defence agreement with Saudi Arabia places Pakistan in a dilemma over whether to get involved in the war. If the war broadens into a regional conflict, the expert asserts, it would be difficult for Pakistan to justify not becoming involved given its treaty obligations, yet it is unwilling to do so. Islamabad has no desire to be drawn into the conflict, the expert states, because once involved, it might face an existential crisis.
He argues that the spillover of the conflict poses multiple direct threats to Pakistan
- Pakistan remains in a state of conflict with Afghanistan
- if the war continues to spread, the US and Saudi Arabia may request transit access through Pakistan for military operations against Iran
- Pakistan shares a long border with Iran, particularly where Pakistan’s Balochistan province borders Iran’s Sistan and Baluchestan province
- the Baloch issue is a major concern for Pakistan
- if insurgent groups such as the Balochistan Liberation Army take advantage of the US–Israel–Iran war and the Afghanistan–Pakistan conflict to expand their influence and coordinate with Baloch groups inside Iran, Pakistan could face the risk of fragmentation
- Pakistan has a large Shia population, which would not support the decision to join a war against Iran
- Pakistan is dependent on oil imports from the UAE and Saudi Arabia
- an expanded war would trigger a severe energy crisis while Pakistan's economy is already struggling
Therefore, stresses Liu, Pakistan is under pressure from both Saudi Arabia and the United States, and seeks to avoid alienating either side while still responding to their expectations. As a result, it has proactively stepped forward to mediate, aiming to
- reduce damage to Saudi Arabia's critical infrastructure
- deflect pressure to become directly involved
- help Trump manage an awkward situation, prolonging the current positive phase in US–Pakistan relations
- safeguard its own oil supplies
Liu lists the advantages Pakistan has as a mediator
- good relations with the US, Iran and Gulf countries
- open channels of communication with all sides
- being an ally of the US in the war on terror
- being the only country possessing nuclear weapons within the Islamic world, hence having a special status
- victory in the 7 May air battle with India in 2025 and the resulting shift in US President Donald Trump's attitude
However, the expert admits, these advantages are based on geographical proximity and Pakistan's status as a 'middle power acceptable to all parties.' Islamabad can serve as a bridge and a platform, but it cannot act as a true mediator, argues Liu, as it lacks sufficient capability and prestige. This is why it turned to Beijing to issue the five-point initiative
- the PRC and Pakistan are all-weather strategic cooperative partners
- the PRC has influence and prestige in the international community
- the PRC is regarded as fair and impartial