Outside powers should be prevented from manipulating China–ASEAN ties, argues Zhu Feng 朱锋 Nanjing University Collaborative Innovation Centre of South China Sea Disputes director in Observer. Adopting the framework code of conduct (CoC) for the South China Sea is, he says, a small step forward for CoC negotiations but a big one in terms of China–ASEAN ties.
Following the 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties (DoC) in the South China Sea, it took another 15 years to conclude negotiations. Discussions were prolonged by divisions (also within ASEAN) over what role a CoC can realistically play in disputes, and what factors should be avoided as disturbances during negotiations. The difficulty is that if CoC negotiations interfere with sovereignty and maritime rights disputes themselves, contends Zhu, the latter in fact become sovereignty negotiations, which is inappropriate.
If a CoC is to become legally binding, notes Zhu, it cannot be become a tool of external power interference; it must be the result of voluntary and independent dialogue and work to advance regional stability and cooperation, he says.
After 2002, the situation became much more tense, not least due to China's island building, notes Zhu, but outside interference worsened the situation. The arbitration case launched by the Philippines contravened the 2002 DoC, he claims, becoming a source of tension.
The US, Japan and Australia (outside powers) were unhappy with the framework agreement because, according to Zhu, they thereby lose a tool to interfere and disrupt. In a trilateral statement they insisted on the arbitration award from July 2016, which Zhu dismisses. These powers are simply unwilling, finds Zhu (noting recent US Freedom of Navigation operations), to appreciate China–ASEAN cooperation, still seeing the South China Sea as a battlefield in the great power game where China can be pinned down.
China and ASEAN will continue to maintain restraint and control over disputes, says, Zhu says, approvingly citing Wang Yi 王毅 Foreign Minister: history will prove who is the visitor and who is the real host (in the South China Sea).