context: With the trade war in full swing, commentators are discussing a variety of approaches to reduce dependence on US soybean imports, subject to high and rising tariffs. These comments echo remarks from COFCO and SinoGrain in July but provide additional detail. The first reported domestic outbreak of African Swine Fever may force regulators or companies to drastically shift strategy in coming weeks.
Soybean imports can be cut by over ten million tonnes in 2018 if several alternatives are employed, says Economic Daily, specifically including
- using low-protein feed formulations
- increasing amino acids to lower protein ratio needed in livestock feed
- reduces need for soybean meal five to seven percent, or roughly five million tonnes
- importing soy substitutes
- over 6 million tonnes of soy could be replaced by importing 2.5 million tonnes rapeseed, 3.5 million tonnes sunflower meal and 3 million tonnes palm kernel meal
- increasing domestic oilseed production area
- if 150 million mu of winter fallow land in the Yangtze River Valley is planted with rapeseed and soy, an additional 10 – 20 million tonnes of oilseeds could be produced domestically
Low profits in the pig industry have already lowered soy meal demand and are expected to continue says the piece.
In an earlier editorial in Farmers Daily, Ke Bingsheng 柯炳生 China Agriculture University former president argues that while feed costs will have minimal impact on consumer price index (CPI), direct support to the pig and poultry farming industry may be necessary. Ke argues uncertainty and rising feed prices will cause farms to cut their herd size, and cites data from 2006 and 2007 when a less than eight percent decrease in pig production led to a 60 percent pork price increase.