context: The upcoming 15th 5-year plan period will be crucial for the PRC's dual carbon targets of peaking by 2030 and neutrality by 2060. Power sector planning must balance dual objectives of energy security and green, low-carbon development. The following editorial from Ouyang Changyu 欧阳昌裕 State Grid Energy Research Institute party secretary, outlines key challenges and policy recommendations for planners.
The PRC's power system is accelerating toward a new stage of 'five highs', according to Ouyang Changyu 欧阳昌裕 State Grid Energy Research Institute party secretary. This entails high
- proportions of renewable energy
- renewable installed capacity accounted for 42 percent of the total and 18.5 percent of generation by the end of 2024
- while renewables have reached grid parity, intermittency and volatility increase system uncertainty
- significant flexible adjustment resources, added conventional generation, flexible assets and grid investment create high system costs
- renewable installed capacity accounted for 42 percent of the total and 18.5 percent of generation by the end of 2024
- level of innovation
- new tech and business models across generation-grid-load-storage increase interactions
- participation of new market players
- new participants such as storage operators, load aggregators, VPPs (virtual power plants) and microgrids are emerging
- their diverse interests demand a modern governance system
- reliance on electronic power devices
- power electronic equipment has weaker fault tolerance and often disconnects during grid disturbances
- probability of extreme climate weather events
- climate factors now affect power generation, transmission and consumption
- extreme temperatures can shorten equipment lifetimes or trigger sudden failures
Resolving some of these challenges requires tackling three core issues, notes Ouyang
- ensuring secure power supply
- effective capacity (portion of installed capacity that can reliably serve load) must be planned alongside installed capacity
- ratios of effective capacity to peak load should reach 1.12 at the provincial level and 1.2 nationally
- different resources will shift roles
- renewables: moving from capacity-based to generation-based contributions
- coal: from baseload to flexible backup
- gas: from peaking to dual power/energy support
- nuclear: from baseload toward contributing to flexibility
- hydro: from pure supply toward hybrid supply and flexibility
- effective capacity (portion of installed capacity that can reliably serve load) must be planned alongside installed capacity
- advancing green transformation
- optimising scale and structure
- renewable installed capacity is expected to grow over 200GW annually during the 15th 5-year plan
- spatial layout
- promote both distributed and centralised systems
- advance desert and barren area energy bases
- innovate offshore wind models and expand solar thermal in the northwest
- couple renewables with hydrogen and computing resources in resource rich regions
- system friendliness
- improve effective capacity through storage, station retrofits and 'grid supportive' features
- evolving system form
- systems are moving to multi-level hybrid AC/DC large grids, microgrids and interactive energy networks
- cost management
- market mechanisms must improve efficiency, with government and society sharing non-market costs
- optimising scale and structure
- accelerating a unified national power market
- strict entry/exit standards must be ensured for bringing new actors (i.e. renewables, storage, demand-side resources) into the market
- electricity pricing must reflect resource value at different times and ensure effective capacity and flexibility compensation
- Electricity Law, Renewable Energy Law and Energy Law will serve as the legal foundation for new power systems