context: One of the key outcomes of Donald Trump’s visit to Beijing, which took place from 13–15 May, is the establishment of a new framework for PRC–US relations: a 'constructive strategic stability'.
The concept of 'constructive strategic stability between the PRC and the US' expands and innovates the concept of 'strategic stability', argues Shen Yi 沈逸 Fudan University International Politics Department. In particular, it
- extends traditional 'strategic stability' beyond the military and security sphere
- traditional 'strategic stability' focused on the risks of nuclear war, arms races and crisis escalation
- 'constructive strategic stability' encompasses multiple dimensions, including politics, economics, tech, security and global governance
- 'constructive strategic stability' requires not only that the two countries avoid military conflict, but also that they prevent
- economic and trade relations from spiralling out of control
- tech cooperation from breaking down
- supply chains from being disrupted
- strategic miscalculations from spreading
- cooperation in global governance from slowing down
- emphasises the word 'constructive'
- traditional 'strategic stability' often carried a negative connotation (preventing war, pre-emptive strikes and arms races)
- 'constructive strategic stability' requires stability itself to possess positive content
- 'positive stability with cooperation as the mainstay' means that PRC–US relations cannot remain at the low level of stability defined merely by 'not going to war'; instead the two sides should continually increase the positive assets in the relationship through cooperation in
- trade and economics
- public health
- agriculture
- tourism
- people-to-people exchanges
- law enforcement
- global governance
- 'healthy stability with competition within proper limits' means that competition is unavoidable, but it should have boundaries, rules, and bottom lines and must not be pushed towards extreme confrontation
- 'constant stability with manageable differences' means that differences will not disappear, but they can be effectively managed through communication mechanisms
- 'lasting stability with expectable peace' points to the ultimate objective of stability, namely long-term peace, rather than temporary easing of tensions
- 'positive stability with cooperation as the mainstay' means that PRC–US relations cannot remain at the low level of stability defined merely by 'not going to war'; instead the two sides should continually increase the positive assets in the relationship through cooperation in
- links 'stability' with the idea of 'moving towards each other'
- it is neither a unilateral demand nor an abstract declaration
- it requires joint support through the policy practices of both sides
- stability
- must be reflected through actions
- fulfilled through policies
- guaranteed through concrete mechanisms
- provides strategic guidance for PRC–US relations over the next three years and beyond
- PRC–US relations currently face a high degree of uncertainty
- 'constructive strategic stability' establishes a stable framework for this uncertainty, ensuring that both sides have
- principles to follow
- mechanisms to use
- bottom lines to uphold
- areas in which cooperation can still be pursued
The significance of the new positioning, as per Shen, lies in the following
- it provides a political framework for stabilising and preventing further deterioration in PRC–US relations
- it provides a foundation for restoring predictability in economic, trade, and tech cooperation
- it sends a signal of stability to the international community regarding the future direction of PRC–US relations
Shen concludes that the proposal of 'constructive strategic stability' is a policy breakthrough marking a new stage in the development of PRC–US relations.