context: Even as the buildout of renewables proceeds at pace, policymakers have clearly signalled continued support for coal-fired power in the short-medium term, waiving energy consumption controls to allow the building of more thermal power plants. This has coincided with provincial governments watering down their energy transition targets to ensure support for coal over the coming years. It is by no means a rejection of renewable power, but an embrace of the mantra ‘build the new system first, then tear down the old one’.
Controlling coal consumption while guaranteeing energy security will be an enormous challenge, according to Guo Jiaofeng 郭焦锋 State Council Development Research Centre's Resource and Environmental Policy Research Institute deputy director. Guo and other experts spoke at the 2023 Global Energy Transition High-Level Forum on 16 Sep 2023.
In 2022, China’s energy consumption mix was
- 56.2 percent coal
- 17.9 percent oil
- 17.5 percent non-fossil fuel
- 8.4 percent gas
The direction and goals of the PRC energy transition are clear, but coal will continue to be a backup and play a guarantor role for a relatively long time into the future, says Tang Guangfu 汤广福 Chinese Academy of Engineering academician. Completely relying on renewables is unrealistic at this stage, he adds. China must set up new systems before breaking down the old ones, according to Tang.
Tang predicts that
- wind and solar will together have larger installed capacity than any other power source by 2030, accounting for roughly 39 percent of total capacity
- by 2040, wind and solar will together overtake thermal power in terms of generation, generating about 33 percent of PRC power
- coal power capacity will continue to climb until around 2030, when it will reach roughly 1370 GW, up from roughly 1120 GW at present, after which point it will decline rapidly
The annual growth rate of PRC power demand will be 4.8 percent p.a. in 2021-25, then 3.6 percent p.a. over 2026-30, predicts China Electricity Council.