context: Despite China-US trade volume increasing 16.5 percent since 2016, tensions continue to grow. This roundtable contextualises increasingly interdependent economic relations, downplaying media hype of a looming trade war.
China-US trade relations have generated momentum this year, agree trade experts in International Business News. Nonetheless, a sense of reserve are felt towards its near future as pundits speculate that the current trade tension will likely intensify.
Compared to short-term sways and frictions, economic interdependence strengthened through comprehensive economic dialogue, deals signed on the Trump visit and China's relaxed financial market access all play a much larger role in future trade relations, asserts Cheng Shi 程实 ICBC International chief economist and managing director.
Recent US investigations only affect products accounting for 0.26 percent of total bilateral trade volume, hardly threatening relations overall, says Liang Ming 梁明 Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation Foreign Trade Institute deputy director. Liang quotes data from China and the US maintaining that both sides remain each other's largest trading partner.
Being heavily interdependent, neither side can afford to trifle with the relationship, asserts Su Qingyi 苏庆义 Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Institute of World Economics and Politics associate researcher. Despite that, endogenous factors generating trade tension will continue to exist as trade protectionism aims to replace imports with domestic products, subsequently stimulating de-capacity in China and re-employment in the US.
If the US reinvigorates its economy, demand for Chinese imports will surge, hopes Huo Jianguo 霍建国 China Society for World Trade Organisation Studies vice president. Experts agree on the following solutions to ease trade tension
- strengthen comprehensive economic dialogue
- restart Bilateral Investment Treaty (BIT) negotiations
- work towards trade balance through domestic industrial upgrading