context: China and South Korea recently ended a year-long dispute over THAAD, but Chinese commentary shows continued unease.
A joint statement addressing the THAAD issue indicates warming China–South Korea relations, but the two sides must maintain regard for each other’s interests, argues Wang Junsheng 王俊生 National Institute of International Strategy Regional Strategy Research Centre director in Global Times. US intervention remains a risk, he warns, via deployment of strategic weapons in South Korea.
South Korea’s 'three no's', says Wang, entail
- staying out of the US missile defence system
- abstaining from trilateral military alliance with the US and Japan
- rejecting additional THAAD deployments
Washington think tanks, however, have circulated purported South Korean advice to the US, notes Wang, that ‘Neither a pledge nor yet an agreement, [the three no's] were merely expressions of intention.' South Korea needs to clarify this ambiguity, argues Wang, to disclose its real meaning and avoid future disputes.
The US is also sensitive towards improvements in China–South Korea relations, Wang observes, fretting that China might intervene in the US–South Korea alliance and decrease US influence. The US could, he warns, deploy additional THAAD or strategic weapons in South Korea to undermine this. This would strengthen conservative voices in South Korea, argues Wang, hampering the Moon government’s commitment to the 'three no's' and improvement of China–South Korea relations.
South Korea did not raise possible US strategic weapons deployment in its 'three no's' statements, notes Piao. If US–South Korea military cooperation influences third-party countries, he argues, China cannot remain passive. Since THAAD has offensive potential and implications for dealing with other regional powers, maintains Wang, it will raise China’s concerns and endanger healthy development of China–South Korea relations.