context: Xi Jinping visited India 11-12 October and held an informal summit with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. High on the agenda was the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) negotiations. China wants the RCEP to be signed by the end of this year, but India’s attitude has been a major roadblock to the deal’s conclusion.
China and India have agreed to speed up RCEP negotiations, according to Yicai, enabling the deal to be signed by end 2019.
At the Chennai informal summit, Xi and Modi agreed to support the rule-based multilateral trade system and make a joint effort to complete RCEP negotiations.
Xi’s visit may help solve the most difficult part of RCEP negotiations, especially India’s concerns over the deal, says Zhang Mei 张梅 China Institute of International Studies.
RCEP is the most important issue between China and India, says Lin Minwang 林民旺 Fudan University Institute of International Studies, because India’s stance is of utmost importance to the future of the talks.
According to Shen Minghui 沈铭辉 Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Centre for APEC and East Asian Cooperation, RCEP will facilitate trade between China and India, which have not joined the CPTPP and do not yet have bilateral trade agreements.
Zhang Mei predicts that most substantive talks will be completed by the end of 2019.
Xi and Modi agreed to set up a high-level dialogue to promote balanced trade. They also agreed on a ‘manufacturing partnership’. Xi invited Indian pharmaceutical and IT firms to invest in China.
India has been concerned about China’s trade surpluses, but after Xi’s visit, says Zhang Mei, China will take some measures to balance bilateral trade.