context: The Ministry of Commerce launched an anti-dumping investigation into Canadian canola on 9 September 2024. In March 2025, Beijing escalated trade tensions with a 100 percent tariff on Canadian canola oil, canola meal and peas, and a 25 percent tariff on seafood and pork, in retaliation for Canadian tariffs on PRC electric vehicles, steel and aluminium. While those tariffs had minimal effect on canola oil imports, they impacted canola meal supply.
MofCOM (Ministry of Commerce) issued its preliminary ruling on the anti-dumping probe into Canadian canola on 12 August, finding evidence of dumping, material injury to the domestic industry and a causal link between the two.
The ruling is expected to reshape PRC and global canola trade flows, writes China Grain Net.
Over 90 percent of canola seed imports and 75 percent of canola meal imports are sourced from Canada. PRC imports of Canadian canola topped 4.7 million tonnes, 96.72 percent of total imports September 2024 to June 2025.
A 75.8 percent security deposit raises import costs by around C¥2,900 per tonne, turning crushing margins negative and sharply reducing forward purchases.
July arrivals are estimated at 130,000 tonnes and August at 195,000 tonnes, for a combined total of 325,000 tonnes—about fifty percent below last year—leaving a monthly supply gap of roughly 400,000 tonnes, equivalent to seventy percent of domestic canola oil output.
Alternative sources remain constrained.
Russian canola carries a thirty percent export tax and higher freight, lifting costs by C¥1,200 per tonne versus Canadian seed, with annual export capacity below 2 million tonnes.
Australian canola sends over seventy percent of output to the EU, ships under 1 million tonnes annually to the PRC, and faces quarantine barriers. Direct canola oil imports hit a record 1.0251 million tonnes in January–May, but cover only half monthly consumption and face logistical bottlenecks.
Demand is supported by peak-season aquafeed use, with 2025 aquaculture profits at a five-year high and canola meal inclusion rates increasing.
Following the ruling, many crushers halted canola meal sales, triggering rapid spot price rises and feeding through to canola oil.
National commercial canola oil stocks stand at 752,500 tonnes, but coastal plant holdings are just 122,000 tonnes, well below safety thresholds; state reserves will not be released before 2026, while end-users have locked in supply in anticipation of higher costs.
Tight supply, depleted inventories and seasonal demand are expected to sustain canola oil’s premium over soybean oil. Palm oil, supported by Indonesia’s B40 biodiesel policy, is unlikely to cap further price gains.