context: The PRC’s beef market is entering a period of supply adjustment, with falling cattle inventories, lower slaughter volumes and higher import costs creating stronger price support. The market outlook will depend on how quickly domestic production recovers and how supply chains adapt to changing import conditions.
The PRC’s beef supply has continued to tighten in 2026. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that beef output fell to 3.39 million tonnes in H1 2026, down 1.0 percent y-o-y. Cattle slaughter reached 21.19 million head, down 3.8 percent, while the national cattle herd stood at 95.57 million head at the end of the second quarter, a fall of 4.3 percent and the lowest level for the same period in nearly six years.
Unlike pork and poultry, which recorded output growth during the period, beef production remained under pressure, showing that the cattle sector is still going through a capacity adjustment phase.
The decline in cattle inventories reflects deeper challenges in the beef industry. Compared with pigs and poultry, cattle production requires a much longer cycle, usually around 24–30 months from breeding to market. This means that lower breeding numbers and farmers leaving the sector will continue to affect supply in the months ahead. Rising feed costs, weaker returns and pressure on small-scale farmers have reduced incentives to expand herds, while some larger farms have delayed sales in anticipation of better prices. As a result, domestic beef supply is unlikely to recover quickly in the short term.
Import conditions are adding further pressure to the market. Imported beef has played an important role in supplementing domestic supply, but recent changes have reduced the availability of lower-cost overseas products. Australia’s annual beef import quota has been fully used, while additional imports beyond the quota face a 55 percent safeguard tariff.
Other major suppliers are also approaching their quota limits. With import costs rising, overseas supply may provide less support for domestic prices than in previous years, pushing businesses such as restaurants, hotpot chains and prepared food companies to diversify their sourcing strategies.
Demand is also providing some support. Although pork production increased 3.3 percent in the first half of the year, recent pork price rises have lifted overall consumer expectations for meat prices. As pork becomes more expensive, some consumers and food businesses may become more willing to accept higher beef prices.
Overall, the PRC’s beef market is now being shaped by three factors: tighter domestic supply, rising import costs and recovering demand. Prices may remain supported in the near term, but the longer-term outlook will depend on the pace of cattle herd recovery, improvements in production efficiency and adjustments across the supply chain.