context: China's pig industry has been coexisting with ASF (African swine fever) for nearly five years. Despite various biosecurity measures, the virus has never been eradicated. The number of cases is believed to be higher this spring. Albeit without official confirmation, small producers have shared news on social platforms. The recent pessimistic report from a securities company triggered a broader discussion.
There is a new round of ASF outbreaks in 17 provinces, the majority in northern China, reports Huachuang Securities. Official statistics have yet to be updated. But a field survey conducted by Huachuang pointed out that nearly half of the pig herd in the region may be affected, probably leading to a 20-30 percent decrease in the sow population. The survey also found that pig producers in the south are ill-prepared for the resurgence, warning that the virus may have a more severe impact there. Although the new strain is believed to be mild and less destructive than the one that deeply shocked the industry in 2018, it will still challenge the pork supply in 2023 and 2024, predicts the company.
Some business people, however, accused Huachuang of exaggeration. However, National Business Daily interviewed business insiders and leading pork companies, and they all admitted that ASF is lingering in China and the situation is more challenging this year. Cold weather and increasing staff mobility after COVID controls were lifted make it easier for the virus to spread. However, it is not thought that the outbreak could affect as much as half of the pig population.