2016’s symbolic ‘No 1’ document accelerates the agriculture modernisation and rural reform agenda set in 2013. Centring on rural-urbanisation, it introduces new concepts in food security, and focuses on integrating digital, financial, legal, and ecological infrastructure.
- SOE reform baby steps
- firm promises clean-up of illicit content
- Xi-style diplomacy targets the Middle East
- empowering maritime power
- health insurance bridging the divide
The ‘three land reforms’ aims to marketise the countryside. 2015 saw progress in construction land market pilots, while land requisition from peasants continued. Promoting and revising land reform pilots will be key in 2016, but any structural change will be delayed until 2018 at the earliest.
PBoC is seeking to devalue the RMB without eroding confidence in its stability. Devaluation pressure is forcing China to back-peddle on the long process of internationalising the RMB.
- government within the law compliance by 2020
- CSRC calls off circuit breakers after four days
- nuclear goes global, grid inches towards reform
- reaching the last straw with the DPRK
- getting agriculture supply-sided
- difficulties in making social insurance sustainable
Move over, ‘new normal’: 2016 will be the year of ‘supply side reform’. Leaders gathering for the annual end-of-year work conferences in Beijing sought to switch the state’s economic management approach from boosting demand to increasing quality and efficiency of supply.
The transition from subsidies to target prices for ag commodities is at risk from the small scale of farming and embryonic futures and reinsurance markets.
- supply-side reform tops 2016 agenda
- solving urbanitis and housing overcapacity
- international compensation for domestic stringency
- oil price plunge
- rewriting the law of the sea
- food security—from production to environment focus
Financial regulation is set for a makeover in the 13th 5-year plan. Officials are debating the integration of the banking regulator (CBRC), securities regulator (CSRC) and insurance regulator (CIRC) with the central bank, the People’s Bank of China.
The Paris Agreement reflects China’s top-level reform agenda—influential industry interests also recognise opportunity. But this alliance must yet overcome the inertia of local government and entrenched SOEs.
- cleaning up accelerates ahead of registration-based IPOs
- decisions on poverty, pensions and housing
- new Africa model; offering global security services
- heavy pollution season
- auditing officials’ performance
- seabed exploration
The Paris COP21 talks and 13th 5-year plan would, it was hoped back in mid 2015, provide light at the end of environmental and industry-economic tunnels. By end November, recession, terrorism and global warming filled policy space around the world; China was caught in the spotlight in all of them, with any moves it made looming as solutions—if not, as serious setbacks—to major problems confronting the world.